18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów I Liga prediction & result

Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce
Referee: M. Kuropatwa
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Pogoń Siedlce 3-4 Stal Rzeszów.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Pogoń Siedlce, 30% draw, 28% Stal Rzeszów — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pogoń Siedlce at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pogoń Siedlce0%Draw4%Stal Rzeszów96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
M. Thiede
34'
⚽S. Gossassist: M. Leniart
37'
⚽V. Krasovskiyassist: S. Pukala
42'
⚽V. Krasovskiyassist: W. Machura
🔁M. Marzecout: S. Kobusinski
46'
46'
🔁W. Brzekout: A. Naifi
46'
🔁S. Salamonout: A. Buksa
⚽E. Dzieciol
48'
⚽C. Demianiukassist: D. Szuprytowski
50'
⚽S. Kobusinski (pen)assist: S. Kobusinski
54'
56'
🔁S. Pukalaout: M. Listkowski
61'
⚽A. Buksaassist: M. Rittmuller
72'
🔁M. Thiedeout: O. Madej
🔁M. Kizymaout: R. Makowski
76'
🔁D. Szuprytowskiout: N. Zielonka
76'
⚽C. Demianiukassist: N. Zielonka
80'
🔁M. Rosolekout: S. Szczytniewski
86'
🔁J. Barczakout: P. Klimek
86'
D. Jakubik
90+5'

Form going into Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów

Pogoń Siedlce

I Liga

  • L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026

Stal Rzeszów

I Liga

  • L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Pogoń Siedlce145451717019
13Stal Rzeszów145361825-718

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów

  • 10 May 2026Pogoń Siedlce 1–2 Stal RzeszówI Liga
  • 2 November 2025Stal Rzeszów 1–1 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
  • 30 March 2025Stal Rzeszów 2–4 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
  • 1 September 2024Pogoń Siedlce 1–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
  • 1 May 2022Pogoń Siedlce 1–4 Stal RzeszówII Liga - East
  • 23 October 2021Stal Rzeszów 3–0 Pogoń SiedlceII Liga - East

The result against the call

Stal Rzeszów won 4–3 at Pogoń Siedlce. The model had leaned towards a win for Pogoń Siedlce at 42% and given a win for Stal Rzeszów 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: S. Goss 34' for Stal Rzeszów, V. Krasovskiy 37' for Stal Rzeszów, V. Krasovskiy 42' for Stal Rzeszów, E. Dzieciol 48' for Pogoń Siedlce, C. Demianiuk 50' for Pogoń Siedlce, A. Buksa 61' for Stal Rzeszów, C. Demianiuk 80' for Pogoń Siedlce.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pogoń Siedlce a 32.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.3% after a win, 34.5% after a draw, 40.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.6%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.

For Stal Rzeszów the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 33.0% going in: 24.1% after a win, 33.2% after a draw, 38.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.1%, 8.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.