18 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

FK Jablonec vs Plzen Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou
Referee: Jan Machalek
Full time2 – 3

Final score: FK Jablonec 2-3 Plzen.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% FK Jablonec, 26% draw, 45% Plzen — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Plzen at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Eduard Sobol
14'
15'
⚽Sampson Dwehassist: Patrik Hrošovský
25'
⚽Christopher Kabongo
34'
Merchas Doski
•Antonín Růsek
35'
35'
Filip Prebsl
🔁Eduard Sobolout: Saidou Alioum Moubarak
45'
53'
⚽Amar Memić
⚽Dusan Pavlovicassist: Filip Zorvan
57'
62'
🔁Adam Gabrielout: Cheick Souare
62'
🔁Merchas Doskiout: tobias paliscak
Saidou Alioum Moubarak
65'
68'
🔁Christopher Kabongoout: Baboucarr Faal
68'
🔁Amar Memićout: Salim Fago Lawal
🔁Vakhtang TChanturishviliout: Dominik Holly
71'
🔁Richard Sedláčekout: Nelson Okeke
71'
🔁Antonín Růsekout: Jan Chramosta
71'
75'
🔁Denis Višinskýout: Stefan Pirgic
77'
Baboucarr Faal
🔁Garang Mawien Kuolout: Hugo Ahl
83'
⚽Baboucarr Faal (OG)
84'

Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Plzen

60%Possession40%
23Shots11
9On target3
8Corners3
3.16xG1.11

Goals against chances

FK Jablonec2 from 3.16 xGless than the chances were worth
Plzen3 from 1.11 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FK Jablonec 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. HanušG
  • 18M. CedidlaD
  • 4N. TekijaškiD
  • 15D. PavlovićD
  • 23E. SobolD
  • 25S. NebylaM
  • 13R. SedláčekM
  • 36G. KuolM
  • 8F. ZorvanM
  • 7V. TchanturishviliM
  • 9A. RůsekF
Substitutes
  • 57F. NovákD
  • 16H. AhlM
  • 6N. OkekeM
  • 17S. AlioumF
  • 19J. ChramostaF
  • 24D. HollýM
  • 21M. PolidarM
  • 20J. SlámaD
  • 22Roman HorákM
Coach: L. Kozel
Plzen 4-2-3-1
  • 44F. WiegeleG
  • 29A. GabrielD
  • 40S. DwehD
  • 98F. PrebslD
  • 14Merchas DoskiD
  • 17P. HrošovskýM
  • 6L. ČervM
  • 99A. MemićM
  • 18T. LadraM
  • 9D. VišinskýM
  • 25C. KabongoF
Substitutes
  • 2T. PališčákD
  • 20Jiří Maxim PanošM
  • 36S. PirgićM
  • 19C. SouaréM
  • 5Karel SpáčilD
  • 1D. ŤapajG
  • 10M. ToureF
  • 3D. VavroD
  • 11M. VydraF
Coach: R. Kováč

Form going into FK Jablonec vs Plzen

FK Jablonec

Czech Liga

  • W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026

Plzen

Czech Liga

  • W3-0Mlada Boleslav10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FK Jablonec146351618-221
8Plzen145542922+720

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Plzen

  • 17 May 2026Plzen 5–0 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 23 November 2025FK Jablonec 3–3 PlzenCzech Liga
  • 26 July 2025Plzen 1–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 24 May 2025Plzen 4–1 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 1 December 2024Plzen 3–2 FK JablonecCzech Liga
  • 3 August 2024FK Jablonec 0–0 PlzenCzech Liga

The full FK Jablonec vs Plzen record →

Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Plzen

FK Jablonec

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Plzen

GoalsAssists

  • C. Kabongo50
  • A. Memić46

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Plzen won 3–2 at FK Jablonec. The model had made a win for Plzen its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Sampson Dweh 15' for Plzen, Christopher Kabongo 25' for Plzen, Amar Memić 53' for Plzen, Dusan Pavlovic 57' for FK Jablonec, Baboucarr Faal (own goal) 84' for FK Jablonec. On expected goals it finished 3.16–1.11.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FK Jablonec a 11.1% chance to finish in the top four: 17.0% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.2%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

For Plzen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.2% going in: 48.0% after a win, 38.2% after a draw, 31.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.0%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FK Jablonec v Plzen has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 29% / 26% / 45%: the biggest move is Plzen's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FK Jablonec win29%▼ −1
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Plzen win45%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.