17 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec Czech Liga prediction & result

Andruv stadion, Olomouc
Referee: Dominik Stary
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Slovan Liberec.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sigma Olomouc, 30% draw, 32% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sigma Olomouc at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sigma Olomouc97%Draw3%Slovan Liberec0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Matej Hadasassist: David Tkáč
11'
38'
Vojtech Stransky
54'
•Matěj Mikulenka
64'
🔁Matěj Mikulenkaout: Lukas Masek
65'
🔁Vojtech Stranskyout: Alexandr Buzek
🔁David Tkáčout: Jan Kliment
66'
🔁Matej Hadasout: Anton Ekeroth
73'
74'
•Patrik Dulay
75'
Alexandr Buzek
80'
🔁Aleko Basiladzeout: Vénuste Baboula
80'
🔁Patrik Dulayout: Milan Lexa
🔁Vaclav Sejkout: Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson
85'
86'
•Lukas Masek
89'
🔁Lukáš Masopustout: Enej Marsetic
Jan Kliment
90+6'

Match stats — Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec

43%Possession57%
12Shots18
3On target6
4Corners11
1.02xG1.13

Goals against chances

Sigma Olomouc1 from 1.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
Slovan Liberec0 from 1.13 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sigma Olomouc 3-4-3
  • 91Jan KoutnýG
  • 2A. SyllaD
  • 33M. MalýD
  • 4Léo BorgesD
  • 22M. HadašM
  • 7M. BeranM
  • 14M. SoldoM
  • 70A. GhaliM
  • 39D. JanošekF
  • 10V. SejkF
  • 24D. TkáčF
Substitutes
  • 17J. DembeF
  • 29A. EkerothD
  • 98M. HruškaG
  • 5T. HukD
  • 9J. KlimentF
  • 11H. MikaelssonF
  • 26S. NoumbissieD
  • 16F. SlavíčekD
  • 8J. SpáčilM
Coach: P. Hapal
Slovan Liberec 4-2-3-1
  • 40T. KoubekG
  • 5P. HodoušD
  • 29L. HůlkaD
  • 26J. BořilD
  • 27A. KayondoD
  • 12V. StránskýM
  • 8L. MasopustM
  • 24P. DulayM
  • 19V. KušejM
  • 6A. BasiladzeM
  • 25M. MikulenkaF
Substitutes
  • 94Venuste BaboulaF
  • 28V. SychraM
  • 33L. PešlG
  • 3J. MikulaD
  • 9L. MašekF
  • 79E. MarsetičM
  • 15M. LexaM
  • 18J. KoželuhD
  • 16A. BužekM
Coach: B. Fodrek

Form going into Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec

Sigma Olomouc

Czech Liga

  • D1-1away to Teplice11 October 2026

Slovan Liberec

Czech Liga

  • L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sigma Olomouc147342220+224
2Slovan Liberec13823168+826

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovan Liberec

  • 30 November 2025Slovan Liberec 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 2 August 2025Sigma Olomouc 2–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 24 November 2024Sigma Olomouc 1–4 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 28 July 2024Slovan Liberec 1–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 10 February 2024Slovan Liberec 2–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 27 August 2023Sigma Olomouc 2–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Sigma Olomouc and Slovan Liberec

Sigma Olomouc

GoalsAssists

  • V. Sejk63
  • A. Ghali42

Slovan Liberec

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mašek40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sigma Olomouc beat Slovan Liberec 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sigma Olomouc at 38%. The goal: Matej Hadas 11' for Sigma Olomouc. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sigma Olomouc a 28.3% chance to finish in the top four: 35.1% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 19.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.

For Slovan Liberec the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 44.8% going in: 55.7% after a win, 43.2% after a draw, 36.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.8%, 8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sigma Olomouc v Slovan Liberec has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 34% / 31% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Sigma Olomouc's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Sigma Olomouc win38%▲ +4
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Slovan Liberec win32%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.