Barnet vs Oldham League Two prediction & result
Final score: Barnet 1-1 Oldham.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Barnet, 23% draw, 25% Oldham — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Barnet at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barnet vs Oldham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13M. CoxG
- 5A. SeniorD
- 4D. CollingeD
- 6Z. WilliamsD
- 3R. Crichlow-NobleD
- 22O. GallagherM
- 23J. ReevesM
- 17D. AjayiM
- 8C. LakinM
- 11I. KanuM
- 20K. TshimangaF
- 14B. ComleyM
- 7T. KnowlesF
- 10N. OfoborhM
- 18K. SmithD
- 25N. TavaresD
- 36Anthony HaralambousG
- 32Isiah Noel WilliamsF
- 1M. HudsonG
- 16W. SuttonD
- 5D. DanielsD
- 6E. MontheD
- 3J. RobsonD
- 8O. NorburnM
- 7K. Appiah-ForsonM
- 17F. FawunmiM
- 26Kai PayneM
- 10C. KavanaghM
- 9M. Fondop-TalumF
- 14N. ChilversM
- 15K. DrummondF
- 21J. HawkesM
- 4T. PettM
- 24L. TempleD
- 22Wilson WilsonG
- 2G. Scott-MorrissD
Form going into Barnet vs Oldham
Barnet
League Two
- L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
Oldham
League Two
- L0-3away to Walsall20 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 26 |
| 20 | Oldham | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Barnet vs Oldham
- 24 January 2026Barnet 3–2 OldhamLeague Two
- 27 September 2025Oldham 1–1 BarnetLeague Two
- 1 March 2025Oldham 0–3 BarnetNational League
- 9 November 2024Barnet 0–0 OldhamNational League
- 23 January 2024Oldham 2–0 BarnetNational League
- 22 November 2023Barnet 1–4 OldhamNational League
Leading scorers: Barnet and Oldham
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- K. Tshimanga104
- C. Lakin63
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barnet and Oldham drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Barnet at 52% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kabongo Tshimanga 20' for Barnet, Mike·Fondop-Talum 90+4' for Oldham. Sent off: Isiah Noel Williams (Barnet) 70'. On expected goals it finished 1.44–2.51.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Barnet a 33.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 36.5% after a win, 30.5% after a draw, 27.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.5%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.
For Oldham the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 7.7% going in: 5.1% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.8%.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.