24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town League Two prediction & result

Memorial Stadium, Bristol
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Bristol Rovers 0-0 Swindon Town.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Bristol Rovers, 27% draw, 33% Swindon Town — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bristol Rovers at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bristol Rovers4%Draw92%Swindon Town4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
🔁S. Inwoodout: Billy Kirkman
Kofi Balmer
37'
🔁Fabrizio Cavegnout: Bobby Kamwa
63'
🔁Richard Smallwoodout: Keenan Gough
63'
64'
🔁Joe Snowdonout: antwoine hackford
64'
🔁Tom Nicholsout: Joseph Hungbo
🔁Bobby Kamwaout: Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny
71'
76'
Kaelan Majekodunmi
83'
🔁Mitchell Clarkout: Joel McGregor
84'
🔁Matthew Virtue-Thickout: James Debayo
90+3'
Dan Butler

Match stats — Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town

58%Possession42%
22Shots9
8On target3
2Corners6
2.02xG1.83

Goals against chances

Bristol Rovers0 from 2.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Swindon Town0 from 1.83 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bristol Rovers 3-4-1-2
  • 1Brad YoungG
  • 4K. BalmerD
  • 5A. KilgourD
  • 17C. KellyD
  • 2T. JamesM
  • 6C. MolaM
  • 21R. SmallwoodM
  • 3J. SparkesM
  • 7S. FordeM
  • 29F. CavegnF
  • 9J. QuigleyF
Substitutes
  • 28A. AppiahF
  • 22Keenan GoughM
  • 10B. KamwaF
  • 14B. PurringtonD
  • 8R. Russell-DennyM
  • 27P. SanyaoluM
  • 32Charlie BinnsG
Coach: S. Evans
Swindon Town 4-3-3
  • 1C. RipleyG
  • 2M. ClarkD
  • 21K. MajekodunmiD
  • 16S. InwoodD
  • 26D. ButlerD
  • 24M. Virtue-ThickM
  • 25J. ThomsonM
  • 6J. BallM
  • 7T. NicholsF
  • 23A. DrinanF
  • 19J. SnowdonF
Substitutes
  • 34B. KirkmanD
  • 33Joel McGregorD
  • 12Lewis Moore WardG
  • 29A. HackfordF
  • 15J. HungboF
  • 18J. DebayoD
  • 39L. MillardF
Coach: Ian Holloway

Form going into Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town

Bristol Rovers

League Two

  • L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026

Swindon Town

League Two

  • W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
  • D1-1Walsall17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Bristol Rovers155191725-816
16Swindon Town155461621-519

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town

  • 28 February 2026Swindon Town 1–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • 13 December 2025Bristol Rovers 0–3 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 8 October 2024Swindon Town 4–0 Bristol RoversEFL Trophy
  • 18 October 2022Bristol Rovers 3–0 Swindon TownEFL Trophy
  • 22 January 2022Swindon Town 1–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
  • 2 October 2021Bristol Rovers 1–3 Swindon TownLeague Two

Leading scorers: Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town

Bristol Rovers

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Bristol Rovers at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 2.02–1.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Swindon Town a 5.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 2.8% after a win, 4.5% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.5%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bristol Rovers v Swindon Town has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Bristol Rovers's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Bristol Rovers win40%▼ −6
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Swindon Town win33%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.