24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Chesterfield vs Crewe League Two prediction & result

SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Chesterfield 5-1 Crewe.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Chesterfield, 28% draw, 30% Crewe — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Chesterfield at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Josh Koromaassist: Liam Mandeville
3'
🔁Josh Koromaout: Dilan Markanday
5'
⚽Tom Naylorassist: F. Bryden
6'
⚽F. Brydenassist: Liam Mandeville
19'
⚽Joshua Stephenson (OG)
35'
⚽Liam Mandevilleassist: Tom Pearce
45+1'
45'
🔁Joel Tabinerout: Charlie McNeill
45'
🔁Conor Thomasout: Owen lunt
57'
⚽Charlie McNeillassist: Jordan Gibson
🔁Tom Pearceout: Lewis Gordon
60'
🔁F. Brydenout: Lee Bonis
60'
63'
🔁Josh Marchout: Adrien thibaut
63'
🔁Reece Hutchinsonout: Kyle Ure
69'
Lee Bell
74'
🔁Matúš Holíčekout: Joe White
🔁Louie Marshout: Kiano Dyer
77'
🔁Tom Naylorout: Rafiq Lamptey
77'

Match stats — Chesterfield vs Crewe

65%Possession35%
14Shots3
5On target2
2Corners4
1.87xG0.49

Goals against chances

Chesterfield5 from 1.87 xGmore than the chances were worth
Crewe1 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chesterfield 4-2-3-1
  • 1Z. HemmingG
  • 33R. HuttonD
  • 15A. PondD
  • 6J. SimpsonD
  • 46T. PearceD
  • 4T. NaylorM
  • 20G. McEachranM
  • 7L. MandevilleM
  • 18L. MarshM
  • 37J. KoromaM
  • 9F. BrydenF
Substitutes
  • 10L. BonisF
  • 11D. DuffyM
  • 27K. DyerM
  • 19L. GordonD
  • 30R. LampteyM
  • 24D. MarkandayF
  • 26J. EcclestonD
Coach: P. Cook
Crewe 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. BoothG
  • 2L. BillingtonD
  • 6L. OffordD
  • 12J. StephensonD
  • 3R. HutchinsonD
  • 17M. HolíčekM
  • 8C. ThomasM
  • 11J. TabinerM
  • 20Calum AgiusM
  • 14J. GibsonM
  • 9J. MarchF
Substitutes
  • 10J. WhiteM
  • 4Kyle UreM
  • 29A. ThibautF
  • 23C. McNeillF
  • 19O. LuntM
  • 13I. LawlorG
  • 30Stan DanceyD
Coach: Lee Bell

Form going into Chesterfield vs Crewe

Chesterfield

League Two

  • D1-1Colchester20 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Port Vale17 October 2026

Crewe

League Two

  • L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
  • W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Chesterfield156452621+522
5Crewe155821919023

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chesterfield vs Crewe

  • 25 April 2026Chesterfield 2–0 CreweLeague Two
  • 22 November 2025Crewe 3–3 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 2 September 2025Crewe 7–1 ChesterfieldEFL Trophy
  • 1 March 2025Chesterfield 1–3 CreweLeague Two
  • 17 August 2024Crewe 0–5 ChesterfieldLeague Two
  • 26 December 2017Chesterfield 0–2 CreweLeague Two

Leading scorers: Chesterfield and Crewe

Chesterfield

GoalsAssists

  • L. Marsh61
  • L. Bonis52

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chesterfield beat Crewe 5–1. The model had made a win for Chesterfield its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Josh Koroma 3' for Chesterfield, Tom Naylor 6' for Chesterfield, F. Bryden 19' for Chesterfield, Joshua Stephenson (own goal) 35' for Chesterfield, Liam Mandeville 45+1' for Chesterfield, Charlie McNeill 57' for Crewe. On expected goals it finished 1.87–0.49.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chesterfield a 16.6% chance to finish in the top three: 19.4% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.4%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For Crewe the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 22.5% going in: 27.4% after a win, 21.2% after a draw, 19.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.4%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.