24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Cheltenham vs Newport County League Two prediction & result

Whaddon Road, Cheltenham
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Cheltenham 1-0 Newport County.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Cheltenham, 25% draw, 32% Newport County — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cheltenham at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cheltenham96%Draw4%Newport County0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Charlie McCannassist: Jake Evans
5'
30'
Gerard Garner
34'
🔁M. Dibley-Diasout: Matthew Smith
38'
Michael Adu-Poku
Jake Evans
47'
K. Otchere
56'
57'
Matthew Smith
61'
⚽Harrison Biggins (pen)
62'
🔁Gerard Garnerout: Kion Etete
🔁Charlie McCannout: Ryan Broom
65'
🔁K. Otchereout: Jake Bickerstaff
68'
🔁Jake Evansout: George Miller
73'
81'
🔁Yahya Bambaout: Kieron Thomas Evans
81'
🔁joe thomasout: Thomas Davies

Match stats — Cheltenham vs Newport County

51%Possession49%
6Shots15
1On target2
1Corners5
1.38xG1.38

Goals against chances

Cheltenham1 from 1.38 xGabout what the chances were worth
Newport County0 from 1.38 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cheltenham 4-2-3-1
  • 23W. StanwayG
  • 3J. TomkinsonD
  • 25P. SweeneyD
  • 6J. WilsonD
  • 26J. ShipleyD
  • 7B. StevensonM
  • 33F. WillcoxM
  • 19J. EvansM
  • 8C. McCannM
  • 9K. OtchereM
  • 18A. WeimannF
Substitutes
  • 11J. BickerstaffF
  • 14R. BroomM
  • 31M. DialloG
  • 10G. MillerF
  • 21G. NurseD
  • 20Favour OnukwuliF
Coach: S. Cotterill
Newport County 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. WrightG
  • 22C. NormanD
  • 5L. JenkinsD
  • 4K. CameronD
  • 12Joe ThomasD
  • 24M. Dibley-DiasM
  • 6C. BrennanM
  • 23M. Adu-PokuM
  • 10H. BigginsM
  • 20Y. BambaM
  • 19G. GarnerF
Substitutes
  • 8M. SmithM
  • 34D. SassiD
  • 33S. MacDonaldG
  • 7K. EvansM
  • 2C. EvansM
  • 28K. EteteF
  • 3T. DaviesD
Coach: H. Mullins

Form going into Cheltenham vs Newport County

Cheltenham

League Two

  • W4-2Fleetwood Town20 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026

Newport County

League Two

  • D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
  • D1-1York17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cheltenham156362326-321
14Newport County154742219+319

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Newport County

  • 18 April 2026Cheltenham 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 18 October 2025Newport County 0–2 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 22 February 2025Newport County 0–3 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 3 September 2024Newport County 1–2 CheltenhamEFL Trophy
  • 10 August 2024Cheltenham 3–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
  • 10 October 2023Cheltenham 0–2 Newport CountyEFL Trophy

Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Newport County

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91

Newport County

GoalsAssists

  • S. Gwengwe50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cheltenham beat Newport County 1–0. The model had made a win for Cheltenham its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Charlie McCann 5' for Cheltenham. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cheltenham a 6.1% chance to finish in the top three: 7.5% after a win, 4.6% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.5%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

For Newport County the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 10.8% going in: 7.8% after a win, 11.3% after a draw, 12.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.1%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cheltenham v Newport County has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is Cheltenham's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Cheltenham win43%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Newport County win32%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.