Crawley Town vs Tranmere League Two prediction & result
Final score: Crawley Town 1-1 Tranmere.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Crawley Town, 27% draw, 35% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Crawley Town at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crawley Town vs Tranmere
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. MannoneG
- 2K. GordonD
- 6P. FarquharsonD
- 16J. RussellD
- 12L. RichardsD
- 30Kai JenningsM
- 20J. ArthursM
- 10S. Duke-McKennaM
- 27Dylan MorganM
- 22A. AdeyemoM
- 9D. OrsiF
- 17Osman KamaraF
- 4Pele Arganese-McDermottD
- 11P. AderojuF
- 13N. MichalskiG
- 19D. PereiraM
- 28Nathan TinsdaleM
- 8L. WatsonM
- 1L. McGeeG
- 2J. SeniorD
- 22L. O'ConnorD
- 16B. FaulknerD
- 30G. NevettD
- 3J. SlaterD
- 29D. JonesM
- 6W. VaulksM
- 11T. ConlonM
- 10T. InceM
- 9J. IronsideF
- 7Charlie Jay WhitakerM
- 13C. Boyce-ClarkeG
- 24David KamaraF
- 14O. ScottD
- 5N. SmithD
- 4J. TurnbullD
- 44R. WatsonM
Form going into Crawley Town vs Tranmere
Crawley Town
League Two
- L2-3Shrewsbury20 October 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
- D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026
Tranmere
League Two
- W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
- L1-2Barnet17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Tranmere | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crawley Town vs Tranmere
- 14 February 2026Tranmere 2–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 23 August 2025Crawley Town 0–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 23 March 2024Tranmere 1–3 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 16 September 2023Crawley Town 3–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 15 April 2023Crawley Town 2–1 TranmereLeague Two
- 28 February 2023Tranmere 1–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Crawley Town and Tranmere
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Tranmere
GoalsAssists
- D. Jones50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Crawley Town and Tranmere drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Crawley Town at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dylan Morgan 52' for Crawley Town, Will Vaulks 60' for Tranmere. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.27.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crawley Town a 54.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 48.2% after a win, 54.8% after a draw, 60.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.8%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.
For Tranmere the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 14.6% going in: 10.8% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 17.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.2%.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.