Wolves vs Watford Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wolves 1-0 Watford.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Wolves, 24% draw, 18% Watford — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Wolves at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wolves vs Watford
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1José SáG
- 2K. TrippierD
- 15Y. MosqueraD
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 7AndréM
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 27J. BellegardeM
- 8J. JamesM
- 19R. SaïdM
- 10A. ArmstrongF
- 23T. ChirewaF
- 20T. DoyleM
- 28Fer LópezM
- 36M. ManeF
- 14S. NeaveF
- 62L. RawlingsM
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 24Toti GomesD
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 16M. BolaD
- 4K. KebenD
- 6M. PollockD
- 29Branimir MlačićD
- 15K. DiattaD
- 39E. KayembeM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 10M. BoaduF
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 11R. VataF
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 23O. TraoréD
- 22M. PayeroM
- 21Amin NabizadaF
- 45S. MavididiF
- 7O. MaammaF
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 26D. BachmannG
Form going into Wolves vs Watford
Wolves
Championship
- D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026
Watford
Championship
- W2-0Charlton17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Wolves
Watford and Wolves have met 7 times in the records we hold, Wolves has won 5 of them to Watford's 2.
The record
Wolves won the last one 1–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
| Wolves | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
ChampionshipWolves 1–0 Watford - 10 Mar 2022
Premier LeagueWolves 4–0 Watford - 11 Sep 2021
Premier LeagueWatford 0–2 Wolves - 1 Jan 2020
Premier LeagueWatford 2–1 Wolves - 28 Sep 2019
Premier LeagueWolves 2–0 Watford - 27 Apr 2019
Premier LeagueWatford 1–2 Wolves - 7 Apr 2019
FA CupWatford 3–2 Wolves
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Wolves' attack rates 55% above Watford's, and Wolves concede 20% fewer than Watford. That gives Wolves the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Wolves and Watford
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wolves beat Watford 1–0. The model had made a win for Wolves its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Adam Armstrong 35' for Wolves. On expected goals it finished 1.88–0.15.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wolves a 5.8% chance to finish in the top two: 6.7% after a win, 4.2% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.7%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For Watford the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 46.2% going in: 38.6% after a win, 45.3% after a draw, 48.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.5%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Wolves v Watford has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 55% / 27% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Wolves's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Wolves win58%▲ +3
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Watford win18%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.