West Ham vs Southampton Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Ham 2-3 Southampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% West Ham, 25% draw, 27% Southampton — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Ham vs Southampton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HermansenG
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 5MoratoD
- 20J. BowenM
- 14D. MukasaM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 10M. SolomonM
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 17M. KantéF
- 35E. AustböF
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 63Ezra MayersD
- 61L. OrfordM
- 23A. AreolaG
- 19PabloF
- 9J. PiroeF
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 28T. SoučekM
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 5J. StephensD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 8C. JanderM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 23S. EdozieM
- 18T. FellowsM
- 25G. LongG
- 28D. MubamaF
- 2M. RoerslevD
- 34WelingtonD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
Form going into West Ham vs Southampton
West Ham
Championship
- W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026
Southampton
Championship
- D0-0Bolton17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs West Ham
Southampton and West Ham have met 7 times in the records we hold, West Ham has won 3 of them to Southampton's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Southampton won the last one 3–2 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
| West Ham | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
ChampionshipWest Ham 2–3 Southampton - 25 Aug 2026
League CupSouthampton 1–4 West Ham - 19 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueWest Ham 1–1 Southampton - 26 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueSouthampton 0–1 West Ham - 2 Apr 2023
Premier LeagueWest Ham 1–0 Southampton - 16 Oct 2022
Premier LeagueSouthampton 1–1 West Ham - 2 Mar 2022
FA CupSouthampton 3–1 West Ham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, West Ham's attack rates 20% above Southampton's, and Southampton concede 29% fewer than West Ham. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| West Ham | 1.12 | 1.47 |
Leading scorers: West Ham and Southampton
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Southampton won 3–2 at West Ham. The model had leaned towards a win for West Ham at 48% and given a win for Southampton 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kuryu Matsuki 2' for Southampton, James Bree 11' for Southampton, Kyle Walker-Peters 24' for West Ham, Lewis Dobbin 34' for Southampton, Tomáš Souček 90+3' for West Ham. On expected goals it finished 1.60–1.61.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave West Ham a 51.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 57.2% after a win, 50.3% after a draw, 42.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.9%, 8.9 points lower than before the match.
For Southampton the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 28.2% going in: 34.8% after a win, 27.9% after a draw, 24.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.8%, 6.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on West Ham v Southampton has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is West Ham's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- West Ham win48%▲ +5
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Southampton win27%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.