Regular Season - 8 · 24 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Port Vale vs Northampton League Two prediction

Vale Park, Stoke on Trent

Our model says: Port Vale 1–0 Northampton

The model makes it 37% Port Vale, 34% draw, 29% Northampton — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Port Vale 0.99, Northampton 0.79.

Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Port Vale's rating is built from 13 League Two matches and Northampton's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.

Key facts

  • Port Vale are 17th on 18 points from 13 games; Northampton are 19th on 15 points from 14 games — League Two.
  • Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Accrington Stanley.
  • Northampton are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Salford City.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2026, ended Northampton 0–1 Port Vale.

More League Two predictions

All League Two predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Port Vale vs Northampton

35%
Both teams to score
26%
Over 2.5 goals
74%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Port Vale win Draw Northampton win
  1. 0–018%
  2. 1–016%
  3. 1–114%
  4. 0–113%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 0–25%

Scores read Port Vale first; the other scorelines share the remaining 19%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Port Vale at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Port Vale vs Northampton

Port Vale

League Two

  • W4-2Accrington Stanley14 November 2026
  • W4-2Rochdale31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to York24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
  • W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026

Northampton

League Two

  • D1-1away to Salford City14 November 2026
  • L0-1Oldham3 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Accrington Stanley31 October 2026
  • W2-0Colchester24 October 2026
  • L0-1Tranmere20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Port Vale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Port Vale conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
  • Northampton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Northampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Port Vale135351416-218
19Northampton143651011-115

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Port Vale

Chance to finish in the top three · 7% today

Win 8%
Draw 6%
Defeat 5%

Northampton

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 4% today

Win 2%
Draw 4%
Defeat 6%

From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Northampton

  • 24 February 2026Northampton 0–1 Port ValeLeague One
  • 4 October 2025Port Vale 0–0 NorthamptonLeague One
  • 1 April 2024Northampton 2–0 Port ValeLeague One
  • 16 September 2023Port Vale 1–0 NorthamptonLeague One
  • 12 February 2022Port Vale 0–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
  • 7 August 2021Northampton 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Port Vale a 1.1% chance of the title and Northampton 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Port Vale v Northampton has moved

First published on 23 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 37% / 34% / 29%: the biggest move is Port Vale's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Port Vale win37%▼ −3
  2. Draw34%▲ +3
  3. Northampton win29%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Port Vale Northampton
0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.33
1.97 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.46
0.99 Model expected goals (this match) 0.79

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Port Vale the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Port Vale against 0.79 for Northampton. Port Vale's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/1.46 for Northampton.

Port Vale carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.17 for Northampton. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Port Vale to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Port Vale to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Port Vale's ratings add 2 points and Northampton's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level37%−4
  4. Port Vale's ratings39%+2
  5. Northampton's ratings37%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Port ValeNorthampton
13Matches14
5W 3D 5LRecord3W 6D 5L
14 1.1 per gameGoals scored10 0.7 per game
16 1.2 per gameGoals conceded11 0.8 per game
4 of 13Clean sheets4 of 14
5 of 13Failed to score6 of 14
3 of 3Penalties scored–
26 2.0 per gameYellow cards23 1.6 per game
0Red cards1
3-5-2 7×Usual shape4-4-2 10×

Port Vale at home · Northampton away

7Played7
5W 2D 0LRecord1W 4D 2L
12–5Goals for – against6–7
4 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League Two matches this season: Port Vale 13, Northampton 14.

Port Vale scored 432031
Northampton conceded 302141

Port Vale score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Northampton have let in 3 there.

Northampton scored 303201
Port Vale conceded 102444

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Port Vale

Northampton

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.