18 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Istanbul
Referee: Fatih Tokail, Türkiye
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Kasımpaşa 4-1 Samsunspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Kasımpaşa, 27% draw, 25% Samsunspor — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kasımpaşa at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kasımpaşa99%Draw1%Samsunspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Winckassist: A. Kol
26'
⚽A. Arousassist: A. Benedyczak
31'
45'
⚽T. Coulibaly
46'
🔁E. Kilincout: A. Sousa
E. Belozoglu
51'
55'
A. Sousa
58'
•T. Coulibaly
⚽A. Arousassist: J. Rak-Sakyi
64'
70'
🔁Y. E. Ciftout: S. Erakovic
70'
🔁O. Ohlenschlaegerout: A. Sekongo
⚽A. Benedyczakassist: K. Demirbay
78'
E. Mendes
79'
🔁A. Kolout: T. Diarra
82'
🔁A. Benedyczakout: G. Yalcin
82'
🔁K. Demirbayout: H. Hajradinovic
83'
🔁A. Karapoout: K. Mouanga
86'
🔁J. Rak-Sakyiout: M. Rafferty
86'
86'
🔁Y. Kayanout: E. Tavsan
86'
🔁T. Coulibalyout: S. Jarju
89'
E. Watt

Match stats — Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor

49%Possession51%
23Shots12
9On target4
9Corners6
2.6xG1.13

Goals against chances

Kasımpaşa4 from 2.60 xGmore than the chances were worth
Samsunspor1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
  • 1Andreas GianniotisG
  • 2Cláudio WinckD
  • 4Adem ArousD
  • 27Matei IlieD
  • 45Ayberk KarapoD
  • 16Andri Fannar BaldurssonM
  • 26Kerem DemirbayM
  • 17Jesurun Rak-SakyiM
  • 51Elson MendesM
  • 7Ali Yavuz KolM
  • 9Adrian BenedyczakF
Substitutes
  • 11Thiemoko DiarraF
  • 50Güven YalçınF
  • 10Haris HajradinovićM
  • 14Kevin MouangaD
  • 19Marcus RaffertyM
  • 25Ali Emre YanarG
  • 30Ahmet Taha DağbaşıD
  • 18Ömer BayramD
  • 66Emirhan BozM
Samsunspor 4-1-4-1
  • 1Okan KocukG
  • 2Josafat MendesD
  • 22Yunus Emre ÇiftD
  • 34Gabriele GuarinoD
  • 17Logi TomassonD
  • 4Elliot WattM
  • 10Tanguy CoulibalyM
  • 20Yalçın KayanM
  • 19Oskar ØhlenschlaegerM
  • 11Emre KılınçM
  • 18Mohamed BayoF
Substitutes
  • 77Afonso SousaM
  • 16Strahinja ErakovićD
  • 42Antoine SekongoM
  • 7Elayis TavsanF
  • 30Saikuba JarjuF
  • 25Bilal BayazitG
  • 3Igor DrapińskiD
  • 23Enes AlbakD
  • 29Haluk Mustafa TanD

Form going into Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor

Kasımpaşa

Süper Lig

  • L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026

Samsunspor

Süper Lig

  • L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Kasımpaşa115511711+620
17Samsunspor112181126-157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor

  • 8 August 2026Kasımpaşa 3–0 SamsunsporFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 January 2026Kasımpaşa 0–1 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 17 September 2025Samsunspor 0–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 29 March 2025Samsunspor 0–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 26 October 2024Kasımpaşa 1–4 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 27 April 2024Kasımpaşa 1–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig

The full Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor record →

Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor

Kasımpaşa

GoalsAssists

  • A. Benedyczak72

Samsunspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kasımpaşa beat Samsunspor 4–1. The model had made a win for Kasımpaşa its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: C. Winck 26' for Kasımpaşa, A. Arous 31' for Kasımpaşa, T. Coulibaly 45' for Samsunspor, A. Arous 64' for Kasımpaşa, A. Benedyczak 78' for Kasımpaşa. On expected goals it finished 2.60–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kasımpaşa a 5.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.7% after a win, 6.4% after a draw, 8.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.7%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

For Samsunspor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 44.3% going in: 35.3% after a win, 43.9% after a draw, 48.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.7%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is Kasımpaşa's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Kasımpaşa win48%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Samsunspor win25%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.