18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Kocaelispor vs Göztepe Süper Lig prediction & result

Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit
Referee: Alper Akarsu, Türkiye
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Kocaelispor 1-2 Göztepe.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Kocaelispor, 29% draw, 31% Göztepe — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kocaelispor at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽Show (OG)
🔁U. Yildizout: R. Rivas
46'
🔁M. Altunbasout: F. Aye
46'
M. Susoho
56'
🔁M. Cinanout: T. Gulliksen
57'
🔁D. Agyeiout: M. Baku
74'
76'
Andre Henrique
77'
⚽N. Miroshiassist: Juan
78'
N. Miroshi
⚽B. Kutlu (pen)
82'
83'
🔁Andre Henriqueout: S. Armstrong
83'
🔁Juanout: Janderson
🔁M. Susohoout: M. Maglica
85'
88'
🔁A. Antunesout: E. Bekiroglu
90+2'
🔁Rhaldneyout: F. Anjorin
90+2'
🔁N. Miroshiout: E. Yildirim
E. Ortakaya
90+3'

Match stats — Kocaelispor vs Göztepe

63%Possession37%
13Shots8
4On target3
5Corners1
1.5xG0.94

Goals against chances

Kocaelispor1 from 1.50 xGless than the chances were worth
Göztepe2 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kocaelispor 4-3-3
  • 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
  • 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
  • 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
  • 5Emir OrtakayaD
  • 3Muharrem CinanD
  • 20Mahamadou SusohoM
  • 14ShowM
  • 10Berkan KutluM
  • 11Gonçalo SousaF
  • 7Dan AgyeiF
  • 26Metehan AltunbaşF
Substitutes
  • 99Rigoberto RivasF
  • 97Florian AyéF
  • 8Tobias Fjeld GulliksenM
  • 32Makana BakuM
  • 6Matej MaglicaD
  • 23Onurcan PiriG
  • 41Onur ÖztongaD
  • 75Tayfur BingölD
  • 27Ege BilimM
Göztepe 3-4-1-2
  • 1Arda ÖzçimenG
  • 4Taha AltıkardeşD
  • 19Noah Sonko SundbergD
  • 26Malcom BokeleD
  • 2Arda KurtulanM
  • 5RhaldneyM
  • 20Novatus MiroshiM
  • 12Richard AkonnorM
  • 8Alexis AntunesF
  • 7André HenriqueF
  • 9Juan Santos da SilvaF
Substitutes
  • 39JandersonF
  • 22Sinclair ArmstrongF
  • 10Efkan BekiroğluM
  • 13Ege YildirimD
  • 18Tino AnjorinM
  • 71Nevzat ÜzelG
  • 33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkG
  • 6Alex MatosM
  • 17Gökdeniz BayrakdarF

Form going into Kocaelispor vs Göztepe

Kocaelispor

Süper Lig

  • L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026

Göztepe

Süper Lig

  • W4-0away to Eyüpspor12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Kocaelispor11614139+419
10Göztepe114342219+315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Göztepe

  • 18 April 2026Kocaelispor 1–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
  • 23 November 2025Göztepe 0–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
  • 3 April 2024Kocaelispor 3–2 Göztepe1. Lig
  • 4 November 2023Göztepe 0–1 Kocaelispor1. Lig

The full Kocaelispor vs Göztepe record →

Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Göztepe

Kocaelispor

GoalsAssists

  • B. Kutlu51

Göztepe

GoalsAssists

  • Juan71
  • André Henrique41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Göztepe won 2–1 at Kocaelispor. The model had leaned towards a win for Kocaelispor at 40% and given a win for Göztepe 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Show (own goal) 24' for Göztepe, N. Miroshi 77' for Göztepe, B. Kutlu (penalty) 82' for Kocaelispor. On expected goals it finished 1.50–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Göztepe a 16.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.5% after a win, 17.4% after a draw, 18.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.5%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kocaelispor v Göztepe has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Göztepe's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Kocaelispor win40%=
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Göztepe win31%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.