24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk Premier League prediction & result

Centralnyj Stadion, Vitebsk
Full time0 – 2

Final score: FC Vitebsk 0-2 ML Vitebsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% FC Vitebsk, 30% draw, 41% ML Vitebsk — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ML Vitebsk at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Vitebsk0%Draw1%ML Vitebsk99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Roman Minaevout: Marin Zgomba
17'
17'
⚽Radivoj Bosićassist: Sergei Balanovich
26'
Valery Bocherov
Yevhen Protasov
44'
57'
🔁Radivoj Bosićout: Bassekou Diabate
57'
🔁Aleksandar Mesarovicout: Ode abdullahi
🔁Daniil Pesnyakout: Zakhar Chervyakov
61'
63'
🔁Sergei Balanovichout: Yan Skibsky
64'
🔁Valeri Gromykoout: Nikita Baranok
65'
⚽Artem Kontsevoyassist: Denilho Cleonise
🔁Roman·Lisovskyout: Sergey Tikhonovskiy
69'
🔁Mikhail Bashilovout: Evgeni Krasnov
69'
🔁Evgeniy Novykhout: vlad anikeev
69'
Zakhar Chervyakov
71'
82'
🔁Valery Bocherovout: Aleksey Nosko
90'
Ode abdullahi

Match stats — FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk

47%Possession53%
11Shots14
5On target8
6Corners8

Line-ups

FC Vitebsk 3-4-3
  • 50N. GoyloG
  • 22S. EgorovD
  • 6K. RodionovD
  • 15M. KuntsevichD
  • 17E. NovykhM
  • 30Mikhail BashilovM
  • 7R. LisovskiyM
  • 10Y. ProtasovM
  • 88E. FrazzoniF
  • 77R. MinaevF
  • 11A. GurenkoF
Substitutes
  • 1I. NovichkovG
  • 66A. RadinF
  • 8A. AnufrievM
  • 20E. KrasnovM
  • 26S. TikhonovskiyM
  • 86M. ŽgombaM
  • 14Z. ChervyakovF
  • 18V. AnikeevF
  • 67G. MinkevichF
Coach: S. Gurenko
ML Vitebsk 4-3-3
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 23S. BalanovichD
  • 6K. GomanovD
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 45I. MoskalenchikD
  • 55V. GromykoM
  • 15V. BocherovM
  • 27A. MesarovićM
  • 10D. CleoniseF
  • 80A. KontsevoyF
  • 12R. BosićF
Substitutes
  • 22Y. SkibskiyM
  • 18V. ZhukM
  • 2Aleksey NoskoM
  • 4A. OdeM
  • 3N. BaranokD
  • 30Pavel ShcherbachenyaG
  • 7T. IvanovF
  • 9B. DiabatéF
  • 99M. BulanovF
Coach: Juan Díaz

Form going into FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk

FC Vitebsk

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Baranovichi17 October 2026
  • D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.11 October 2026

ML Vitebsk

Premier League

  • W1-0Neman18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FC Vitebsk28117103027+340
1ML Vitebsk2818826119+4262

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Vitebsk vs ML Vitebsk

  • 13 June 2026ML Vitebsk 1–2 FC VitebskPremier League
  • 26 October 2025FC Vitebsk 0–1 ML VitebskPremier League
  • 31 May 2025ML Vitebsk 2–0 FC VitebskPremier League
  • 7 October 2023ML Vitebsk 0–4 FC Vitebsk1. Division
  • 4 June 2023FC Vitebsk 1–0 ML Vitebsk1. Division
  • 21 June 2022ML Vitebsk 2–3 FC VitebskCoppa

The result against the call

ML Vitebsk won 2–0 at FC Vitebsk. The model had made a win for ML Vitebsk its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Radivoj Bosić 17' for ML Vitebsk, Artem Kontsevoy 65' for ML Vitebsk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Vitebsk a 3.5% chance to finish in the top four: 8.7% after a win, 2.3% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

For ML Vitebsk the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 63.6% going in: 76.6% after a win, 56.5% after a draw, 49.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.6%, 13 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Vitebsk v ML Vitebsk has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 30% / 41%: the biggest move is FC Vitebsk's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. FC Vitebsk win29%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. ML Vitebsk win41%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.