Arsenal vs Everton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Arsenal 2-0 Everton.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Arsenal, 23% draw, 14% Everton — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arsenal vs Everton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1David RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 41D. RiceM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 20N. MaduekeM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 10E. EzeM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 12J. TimberD
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 3Cristhian MosqueraD
- 13KepaG
- 56M. DowmanF
- 29K. HavertzF
- 1J. PickfordG
- 34M. RöhlD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 45H. ArmstrongM
- 37J. GarnerM
- 22B. JohnsonM
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 19Tyrique GeorgeM
- 11T. BarryF
- 58B. GrahamF
- 12M. TraversG
- 31T. KingG
- 2A. Maitland-NilesM
- 5M. KeaneD
- 20T. DiblingF
- 23C. NørgaardM
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 30H. HackneyM
Form going into Arsenal vs Everton
Arsenal
Premier League
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest18 October 2026
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
Everton
Premier League
- L0-2Chelsea17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hull City11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Everton
Arsenal and Everton have met 7 times in the records we hold, Arsenal has won 5 of them to Everton's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Arsenal won the last one 2–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 |
| Everton | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueArsenal 2–0 Everton - 14 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueArsenal 2–0 Everton - 20 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueEverton 0–1 Arsenal - 5 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueEverton 1–1 Arsenal - 14 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueArsenal 0–0 Everton - 19 May 2024
Premier LeagueArsenal 2–1 Everton - 17 Sep 2023
Premier LeagueEverton 0–1 Arsenal
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Arsenal's attack rates 48% above Everton's, and Arsenal concede 40% fewer than Everton. That gives Arsenal the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Everton
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry61
- K. Dewsbury-Hall31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arsenal beat Everton 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Arsenal at 63%. The goals: Ezri Konsa 7' for Arsenal, Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães 68' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 1.85–0.54.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arsenal a 29.3% chance to win the league: 30.9% after a win, 26.3% after a draw, 23.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.9%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.
For Everton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.0% going in: 5.8% after a win, 8.5% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.8%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Arsenal v Everton has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 63% / 23% / 14%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Arsenal win63%▲ +3
- Draw23%▼ −1
- Everton win14%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.