Celtic vs Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Celtic 3-2 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Celtic, 27% draw, 42% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Beşiktaş at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celtic vs Beşiktaş
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26S. JohnstoneG
- 3J. LotombaD
- 20C. Carter-VickersD
- 5L. ScalesD
- 63K. TierneyD
- 42C. McGregorM
- 22M. BaurM
- 49J. ForrestM
- 8B. NygrenM
- 17S. TounektiM
- 9K. HøghF
- 31R. DoohanG
- 51Colby DonovanD
- 11C. DuránF
- 23H. HassanF
- 33S. McArdleM
- 14L. McCowanM
- 47D. MurrayD
- 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
- 56A. RalstonD
- 1A. NübelG
- 62A. MurilloD
- 12E. AgbadouD
- 53E. TopçuD
- 11K. OuattaraD
- 15J. OlaitanM
- 6S. ÖzcanM
- 18V. ČernýM
- 19L. TrossardM
- 17E. PokuM
- 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
- 22Taylan BulutD
- 80D. AlemdarG
- 33R. YılmazD
- 28D. VlahovićF
- 58Y. ÖzcanD
- 4W. NdidiM
- 35Tiago DjalóD
- 10O. KökçüM
- 90S. KılıçsoyF
Form going into Celtic vs Beşiktaş
Celtic
UEFA Europa League
- L1-2Celta Vigo22 October 2026
- L1-4away to Benfica15 October 2026
- L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
Beşiktaş
UEFA Europa League
- D2-2Crystal Palace22 October 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim15 October 2026
- W4-1Marseille17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Celtic and Beşiktaş
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán30
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- J. Olaitan23
- Oh Hyeon-Gyu21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celtic beat Beşiktaş 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Beşiktaş at 42% and given a win for Celtic 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Junior Olaitan 54' for Beşiktaş, Callum Osmand 62' for Celtic, Camilo Duran 78' for Celtic, Orkun Kökçü 85' for Beşiktaş, Camilo Duran 87' for Celtic. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.62.
How the call on Celtic v Beşiktaş has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 44% / 25% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 31% / 27% / 42%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, down 13 points.
- Celtic win31%▼ −13
- Draw27%▲ +2
- Beşiktaş win42%▲ +11
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Celtic's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Beşiktaş's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.