18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Bundesliga prediction & result

Merkur-Arena, Graz
Referee: Julian Weinberger
Full time6 – 1

Final score: Sturm Graz 6-1 Grazer AK.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Sturm Graz, 25% draw, 17% Grazer AK — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sturm Graz at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sturm Graz99%Draw1%Grazer AK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Christopher Cvetkoassist: Yannick Oberleitner
🔁Daniil Khudyakovout: Ammar Helac
28'
⚽Luca Weinhandlassist: Valmir Matoshi
37'
⚽Jurgen Heilassist: Luis Balbo
39'
⚽Oumar Diakité
41'
•Joshua Quarshie
45+7'
45'
🔁Christian Lichtenbergerout: Mark Große
45'
🔁Anderson Dos Santos Gomesout: Tim Trummer
48'
Mark Große
⚽Oumar Diakitéassist: Simon Seidl
49'
⚽Oumar Diakitéassist: Simon Seidl
51'
Oumar Diakité
52'
53'
Alexander Hofleitner
🔁Joshua Quarshieout: Jacob Peter Hödl
59'
🔁Luis Balboout: Albert Vallci
59'
🔁Oumar Diakitéout: Szymon Wlodarczyk
60'
🔁Luca Weinhandlout: Julian Halwachs
72'
⚽Jon Gorenc Stankovićassist: Simon Seidl
75'
76'
🔁Christopher Cvetkoout: Tobias Koch
76'
🔁Leon Klassenout: Souleyman mandey
Julian Halwachs
82'

Match stats — Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK

55%Possession45%
23Shots12
10On target3
7Corners2
3.63xG0.61

Goals against chances

Sturm Graz6 from 3.63 xGmore than the chances were worth
Grazer AK1 from 0.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
  • 53D. KhudyakovG
  • 23A. MalicD
  • 2J. QuarshieD
  • 30P. KollerD
  • 28J. HeilM
  • 39Luca WeinhandlM
  • 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
  • 27L. BalboM
  • 19S. SeidlM
  • 78V. MatoshiM
  • 14O. DiakitéF
Substitutes
  • 21P. PetrovićD
  • 11A. KayomboF
  • 43Jacob Peter HödlM
  • 22A. HelacG
  • 40J. HalwachsM
  • 35N. GeyrhoferD
  • 26B. BeganovićF
  • 5A. VallciD
  • 17S. WłodarczykF
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Grazer AK 3-4-2-1
  • 23C. StankovićG
  • 27Y. OberleitnerD
  • 21M. SollbauerD
  • 82B. OwusuD
  • 28AndersonM
  • 34P. MichorlM
  • 24C. CvetkoM
  • 32L. KlassenM
  • 14J. ItalianoM
  • 10C. LichtenbergerM
  • 25A. HofleitnerF
Substitutes
  • 3L. Vraa-JensenD
  • 48M. GraggerD
  • 11M. GroßeF
  • 8T. KochM
  • 9D. MadernerF
  • 17S. MandeyM
  • 72Petar MarkovicD
  • 26C. NichtG
  • 37T. TrummerM
Coach: G. Scheiblehner

Form going into Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK

Sturm Graz

Bundesliga

  • W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026

Grazer AK

Bundesliga

  • D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sturm Graz125432217+519
10Grazer AK12246929-2010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK

  • 7 December 2025Sturm Graz 2–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 30 August 2025Grazer AK 0–3 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 9 March 2025Grazer AK 1–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
  • 19 October 2024Sturm Graz 5–2 Grazer AKBundesliga
  • 2 November 2023Grazer AK 2–3 Sturm GrazCup
  • 19 October 2022Grazer AK 0–1 Sturm GrazCup

Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Grazer AK

Sturm Graz

GoalsAssists

  • O. Diakité90

Grazer AK

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hofleitner40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sturm Graz beat Grazer AK 6–1. The model had made a win for Sturm Graz its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Christopher Cvetko 10' for Grazer AK, Luca Weinhandl 37' for Sturm Graz, Jurgen Heil 39' for Sturm Graz, Oumar Diakité 41' for Sturm Graz, Oumar Diakité 49' for Sturm Graz, Oumar Diakité 51' for Sturm Graz, Jon Gorenc Stanković 75' for Sturm Graz. On expected goals it finished 3.63–0.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sturm Graz a 84.3% chance to finish in the top four: 87.5% after a win, 80.6% after a draw, 76.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.5%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Grazer AK the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.7% going in: 13.1% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sturm Graz v Grazer AK has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 25% / 17%: the biggest move is Sturm Graz's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Sturm Graz win58%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Grazer AK win17%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.