17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga prediction & result

Weserstadion, Bremen
Referee: Robert Schröder, Germany
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Werder Bremen 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Werder Bremen, 29% draw, 25% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Werder Bremen at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Werder Bremen4%Draw93%SC Paderborn 073%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
Stefano Marino
18'
⚽Stefano Marinoassist: Steffen Tigges
30'
⚽Steffen Tigges
🔁Iván San José Cantalejoout: Mitchell Weiser
45'
⚽Niclas Füllkrugassist: Eren Dinkci
59'
🔁Eren Dinkciout: Cédric Itten
63'
⚽Niclas Füllkrug (pen)
65'
66'
🔁Stefano Marinoout: Rayan Philippe
66'
🔁Laurin Ulrichout: Tom Baack
75'
🔁Gabriel Vidovićout: Ruben Müller
75'
🔁Steffen Tiggesout: Marvin Pieringer
🔁Ludovit Reisout: Dariusz Stalmach
79'
Youri Regeer
86'
🔁Youri Regeerout: Paul Erevbenagie
88'
88'
🔁Mattes Hansenout: Jonah Sticker

Match stats — Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

61%Possession39%
18Shots11
11On target4
5Corners3
2.87xG1.01

Goals against chances

Werder Bremen2 from 2.87 xGless than the chances were worth
SC Paderborn 072 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 13ArthurD
  • 5A. PieperD
  • 32M. FriedlD
  • 2O. DemanD
  • 15L. ReisM
  • 44Y. RegeerM
  • 18E. DinkçiM
  • 20Chuky San JoséM
  • 17M. GrüllM
  • 10N. FüllkrugF
Substitutes
  • 38P. ErevbenagieF
  • 26C. IttenF
  • 30A. SchlagerG
  • 33Mick SchmetgensD
  • 34D. SoyluM
  • 23Dariusz StalmachM
  • 4N. StarkD
  • 8M. WeiserD
  • 3O. WójcikD
Coach: D. Thioune
SC Paderborn 07 3-1-4-2
  • 15N. NollG
  • 21J. ter HorstD
  • 25T. SchellerD
  • 22M. HansenD
  • 5S. CastañedaM
  • 17L. CurdaM
  • 28L. UlrichM
  • 40G. VidovićM
  • 23R. ObermairM
  • 30S. MarinoF
  • 27S. TiggesF
Substitutes
  • 9R. PhilippeF
  • 18M. PieringerF
  • 1M. SchubertG
  • 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
  • 38D. ZeitlerF
  • 2Ruben MüllerD
  • 11S. MichelF
  • 29C. LippmannD
  • 6T. BaackM
Coach: R. Kettemann

Form going into Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

Werder Bremen

Bundesliga

  • D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026

SC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga

  • L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Werder Bremen94321715+215
13SC Paderborn 079243811-310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

  • 8 August 2026Werder Bremen 2–2 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
  • 30 October 2024SC Paderborn 07 0–1 Werder BremenDFB Pokal
  • 19 October 2022SC Paderborn 07 2–2 Werder BremenDFB Pokal
  • 22 January 2022SC Paderborn 07 3–4 Werder Bremen2. Bundesliga
  • 15 August 2021Werder Bremen 1–4 SC Paderborn 072. Bundesliga
  • 13 June 2020SC Paderborn 07 1–5 Werder BremenBundesliga

The full Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 record →

Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07

Werder Bremen

GoalsAssists

  • N. Füllkrug90

SC Paderborn 07

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Werder Bremen at 46% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Stefano Marino 18' for SC Paderborn 07, Steffen Tigges 30' for SC Paderborn 07, Niclas Füllkrug 59' for Werder Bremen, Niclas Füllkrug (penalty) 65' for Werder Bremen. On expected goals it finished 2.87–1.01.

How the call on Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Werder Bremen's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Werder Bremen win46%▲ +9
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. SC Paderborn 07 win25%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.