17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga prediction & result

Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen
Referee: Richard Hempel, Germany
Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% FC Schalke 04, 28% draw, 35% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Schalke 04 at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Schalke 040%Draw4%FSV Mainz 0596%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽Phillip Tietzassist: Anthony Caci
42'
Nadiem Amiri
45'
Kaishu Sano
🔁Edin Džekoout: Hwang Hee-Chan
60'
🔁Adrian Tobias Gantenbeinout: Junior Dina Ebimbe
60'
🔁Nikola Katićout: Maximilian Wöber
71'
🔁Adil Aouchicheout: Junior Chukwubuike Adamu
71'
76'
🔁Lee Jae-Sungout: Paul Nebel
76'
🔁Sheraldo Beckerout: Ransford Konigsdorffer
🔁Robin Gosensout: Vitalie Becker
79'
86'
🔁Nadiem Amiriout: Eric Martel
90+1'
🔁Phillip Tietzout: Lennard Maloney
90+1'
🔁Anthony Caciout: Silvan Widmer

Match stats — FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

46%Possession54%
9Shots10
3On target6
4Corners1
0.33xG1.53

Goals against chances

FC Schalke 040 from 0.33 xGabout what the chances were worth
FSV Mainz 051 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Schalke 04 3-4-2-1
  • 1L. KariusG
  • 5T. BeckerD
  • 25N. KatićD
  • 4H. KuruçayD
  • 17A. GantenbeinM
  • 23S. El-FaouziM
  • 13S. TanakaM
  • 8R. GosensM
  • 19K. KaramanM
  • 24A. AouchicheM
  • 10E. DžekoF
Substitutes
  • 20J. AdamuF
  • 43M. AyhanD
  • 33Vitalie BeckerD
  • 29J. Dina EbimbeM
  • 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
  • 22K. MüllerG
  • 6R. SchallenbergM
  • 38L. VozarM
  • 39M. WöberD
Coach: M. Muslić
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
  • 1A. SchwolowG
  • 21D. da CostaD
  • 4S. PoschD
  • 48K. PotulskiD
  • 19A. CaciM
  • 10N. AmiriM
  • 6K. SanoM
  • 7Lee Jae-SungM
  • 2P. MweneM
  • 23S. BeckerF
  • 9P. TietzF
Substitutes
  • 3F. GruberD
  • 17B. HollerbachF
  • 40M. KinzigG
  • 11R. KönigsdörfferF
  • 15L. MaloneyM
  • 5E. MartelM
  • 47R. NakuzolaD
  • 8P. NebelM
  • 30S. WidmerD
Coach: U. Fischer

Form going into FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

FC Schalke 04

Bundesliga

  • L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026

FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga

  • L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Schalke 049135511-66
12FSV Mainz 0593151819-110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

  • 5 May 2023FSV Mainz 05 2–3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 9 November 2022FC Schalke 04 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • 5 March 2021FC Schalke 04 0–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • 7 November 2020FSV Mainz 05 2–2 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 16 February 2020FSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 20 September 2019FC Schalke 04 2–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

The full FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 record →

Leading scorers: FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05

FC Schalke 04

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

FSV Mainz 05

GoalsAssists

  • P. Tietz60
  • A. Caci33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FSV Mainz 05 won 1–0 at FC Schalke 04. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Schalke 04 at 37% and given a win for FSV Mainz 05 35%. The goal: Phillip Tietz 24' for FSV Mainz 05. On expected goals it finished 0.33–1.53.

How the call on FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 35% / 31% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is the draw, down 3 points.

  1. FC Schalke 04 win37%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −3
  3. FSV Mainz 05 win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.