Valenciennes vs Amiens Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Valenciennes 1-1 Amiens.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Valenciennes, 27% draw, 40% Amiens — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Amiens at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1J. Louchet
- 2D. Abu
- 22D. Goprou
- 6M. Zogba
- 13C. Rocchia
- 26L. Boiteau
- 8M. Rouai
- 10D. Diomande
- 21V. Marcel
- 11R. Ekra
- 27Z. Amir
- 40J. Lacombe
- 5B. Passi
- 28A. Wahib
- 25S. Belloumou
- 15I. Tounkara
- 18G. Courtet
- 9J. Ndiaye
- 1V. Delins
- 19A. Nuss
- 25E. Genton
- 4K. Mbala
- 3A. Julloux
- 20L. Llort
- 15M. Colin
- 10Z. Sopromadze
- 22R. Boissier
- 8C. Suljic
- 26C. Mbondi
- 16C. Obin
- 2A. Chabane
- 32L. Diakite
- 6G. Foll
- 31I. Ramla
- 28E. Julien
- 13Y. Rafii
Form going into Valenciennes vs Amiens
Valenciennes
Ligue 3
- L0-1away to Versailles3 October 2026
- W2-1Le Puy Foot26 September 2026
Amiens
Ligue 3
- W3-0Villefranche3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Quevilly26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Valenciennes | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 10 |
| 5 | Amiens | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valenciennes vs Amiens
- 13 January 2024Valenciennes 0–1 AmiensLigue 2
- 23 September 2023Amiens 0–0 ValenciennesLigue 2
- 22 April 2023Amiens 0–2 ValenciennesLigue 2
- 26 December 2022Valenciennes 1–1 AmiensLigue 2
The result against the call
Valenciennes and Amiens drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Amiens at 40% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Colin 34' for Amiens, J. Ndiaye (penalty) 87' for Valenciennes.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valenciennes a 24.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.8% after a win, 24.5% after a draw, 29.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 24.5%.
For Amiens the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 34.1% going in: 40.6% after a win, 32.6% after a draw, 27.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.6%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Valenciennes v Amiens has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 27% / 40%: the biggest move is Amiens's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Valenciennes win33%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Amiens win40%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.