Villefranche vs Cannes Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Villefranche 2-1 Cannes.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Villefranche, 25% draw, 56% Cannes — fair odds of 5.26, 4.00 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cannes at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1S. Pean
- 18R. Laspalles
- 4M. Tshibuabua
- 2J. Ngouabi Lougagui
- 13M. Cachbach
- 8M. Etuin
- 29L. Etoga
- 26N. Sabihi
- 7M. Louzif
- 27A. Diakite
- 9L. Piquionne
- 16T. Wilzius
- 23D. Gassama
- 19K. Nagera
- 17M. De Lima
- 6G. Fofana
- 21Y. Tade
- 14J. Tiehi
- 1Q. Beunardeau
- 14S. Corchia
- 17L. Gueho
- 24L. Morante
- 3C. Makutungu
- 6C. Goncalves
- 22O. Sidibe
- 8E. Caumont
- 25A. N'Diaye
- 7M. Noc
- 29M. Die
- 30F. Vanni
- 27H. Abderrahmane
- 15C. Ndoye
- 4L. Hervieu
- 20J. Lopez
- 11A. Kerouedan
- 10B. Oggad
Form going into Villefranche vs Cannes
Villefranche
Ligue 3
- L0-3away to Amiens3 October 2026
- L1-2Versailles26 September 2026
Cannes
Ligue 3
- W3-1Quevilly3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Orleans26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Villefranche | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 26 | -16 | 8 |
| 7 | Cannes | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Villefranche beat Cannes 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cannes at 56% and given a win for Villefranche 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: M. Louzif 41' for Villefranche, C. Makutungu (own goal) 45+1' for Villefranche, R. Laspalles (own goal) 56' for Cannes. Sent off: S. Corchia (Cannes) 21'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Villefranche a 79.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 72.8% after a win, 78.0% after a draw, 82.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.8%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.
For Cannes the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 77.9% going in: 81.4% after a win, 73.5% after a draw, 70.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.7%, 7.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 3 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Villefranche v Cannes has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 24% / 29% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 19% / 25% / 56%: the biggest move is Cannes's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Villefranche win19%▼ −5
- Draw25%▼ −4
- Cannes win56%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.