Falkirk
vs
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Falkirk 2-1 Heart of Midlothian.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Falkirk, 28% draw, 32% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Falkirk 1.60, Heart of Midlothian 1.29.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Falkirk at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian
Line-ups
- 19S. BainG
- 22R. StrainD
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 5L. HendersonD
- 3L. McCannD
- 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
- 8B. SpencerM
- 23E. RossM
- 28B. KrauhausM
- 42Owen EamesM
- 24J. MurrellF
- 17S. TanserD
- 47A. DohertyF
- 99C. FodreyM
- 1N. HogarthG
- 9R. MacIverF
- 4J. McMillanD
- 21D. MeļņiksM
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 10C. SibbaldM
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 5J. McCartD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 18H. MilneD
- 31Y. DhandaM
- 78L. MendyM
- 7C. MillerM
- 10Cláudio BragaM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 21J. WilsonF
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 30R. FultonG
- 74R. MatoF
- 3S. KingsleyD
- 29S. KerjotaF
- 11P. KaboreF
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 77A. Ba-SyF
- 9J. WilliamsF
Form going into Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian
Falkirk
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Falkirk | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Falkirk vs Heart of Midlothian
- 13 May 2026Heart of Midlothian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 21 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 17 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FalkirkFA Cup
- 13 December 2025Falkirk 0–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 27 September 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 17 August 2024Falkirk 2–0 Heart of MidlothianLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Falkirk and Heart of Midlothian
Falkirk
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Heart of Midlothian
- J. Wilson3 goals
- J. McPake2 goals4 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.60 goals for Falkirk and 1.29 for Heart of Midlothian; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ben krauhaus 8' (Falkirk), James wilson 22' (Heart of Midlothian), Owen Eames 68' (Falkirk).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Falkirk the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Falkirk against 1.29 for Heart of Midlothian. Falkirk's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.73 for Heart of Midlothian.