Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Beitar Jerusalem 0-0 Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Beitar Jerusalem, 24% draw, 43% Maccabi Tel Aviv — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Maccabi Tel Aviv at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 55Miguel SilvaG
- 2N. AntwiD
- 4B. CarabalíD
- 44L. GadraniD
- 11T. MuziD
- 30T. YosefiM
- 80Alexis SernaM
- 40B. EnowM
- 77O. AtziliF
- 7Y. ShuaF
- 9J. KaluF
- 5G. CohenD
- 8Z. ShimolM
- 23O. N. AzoF
- 14R. ElimelechD
- 15N. MucheM
- 22Y. OzerG
- 19S. WeissmanF
- 26D. WorkoM
- 10A. YonaM
- 1O. MelikaG
- 2J. TavernierD
- 5M. CamaraD
- 13R. ShlomoD
- 22N. Ben HarushD
- 28I. SissokhoM
- 11S. YehezkelM
- 42Dor PeretzM
- 16G. KanichowskyM
- 29Hélio VarelaM
- 9E. SoklerF
- 41I. Ben HamoD
- 36I. ShaharM
- 77O. DavidaF
- 18D. GlazerM
- 33H. LayousF
- 45Noam LevyF
- 19E. MadmonF
- 90R. MishpatiG
- 30I. NoyM
Form going into Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Beitar Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al
- W4-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan11 October 2026
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beitar Jerusalem | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
- 16 May 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–2 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 2 May 2026Beitar Jerusalem 4–2 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 16 February 2026Beitar Jerusalem 0–0 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 9 November 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–6 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 24 May 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 5–0 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 21 April 2025Beitar Jerusalem 3–1 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv
Beitar Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- O. Atzili33
- E. Ansah31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- Dor Peretz72
- E. Sokler51
- E. Madmon33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Tel Aviv drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Maccabi Tel Aviv at 43% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.05–1.80.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Beitar Jerusalem a 5.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 8.3% after a win, 4.9% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.9%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
For Maccabi Tel Aviv the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 53.7% going in: 60.5% after a win, 53.0% after a draw, 45.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 53.0%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi Tel Aviv has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 31% / 26% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 33% / 24% / 43%: the biggest move is Beitar Jerusalem's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Beitar Jerusalem win33%▲ +2
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win43%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.