24 October 2026, 15:45 UTC

Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Teddy Stadium, Jerusalem
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Hapoel Jerusalem 0-3 Hapoel Tel Aviv.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Hapoel Jerusalem, 25% draw, 55% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 5.00, 4.00 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Jerusalem0%Draw1%Hapoel Tel Aviv99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
douglas owusu
42'
⚽Daniel Dappaassist: douglas owusu
45'
🔁stav torialout: Roee alkokin
46'
Lucas de Oliveira Teodoro Falcão
53'
⚽Omri Altmanassist: Yannick Leliendal
🔁Ilay Madmonout: N. Vrasana
53'
N. Malmud
57'
🔁nati shafrauout: Omer Abuhav
60'
🔁N. Malmudout: Ariel Yanai Distelfeld
60'
65'
⚽Roee alkokinassist: Yannick Leliendal
🔁Zuberu Sharaniout: omer agvadish
66'
🔁Vitalie Damașcanout: ohad almagor
66'
66'
🔁douglas owusuout: Roy Korine
71'
Yannick Leliendal
ohad almagor
71'
72'
🔁Marcus Cocoout: Shahar Piven
73'
🔁Yannick Leliendalout: Doron Leidner
81'
🔁Lucas de Oliveira Teodoro Falcãoout: Mor Buskila

Match stats — Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

51%Possession49%
7Shots11
1On target4
2Corners3
0.31xG1.29

Goals against chances

Hapoel Jerusalem0 from 0.31 xGabout what the chances were worth
Hapoel Tel Aviv3 from 1.29 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hapoel Jerusalem 4-4-2
  • 55N. ZamirG
  • 26I. CohenD
  • 21Hilay Sharabi MelmanD
  • 3N. MalmudD
  • 22T. HaimovichD
  • 10V. DamaşcanM
  • 8I. MadmonM
  • 91C. TiéhiM
  • 70S. ZuberuM
  • 25A. IdokoF
  • 23Nati ShafrauF
Substitutes
  • 14O. AbuhavM
  • 16O. AgvadishM
  • 7O. AlmagorF
  • 33I. DaphahF
  • 11Y. DistalfeldM
  • 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
  • 18L. MizrachiD
  • 31Hamza MohammedM
  • 19N. VrasanaF
Coach: L. Zada
Hapoel Tel Aviv 4-2-3-1
  • 22A. TzurG
  • 97M. CocoD
  • 5F. MayemboD
  • 4ChicoD
  • 32Y. LeliendalD
  • 98FalcãoM
  • 14E. KancepolskyM
  • 11S. TorialM
  • 35D. OwusuM
  • 51O. AltmanM
  • 44D. DappaF
Substitutes
  • 18T. ArchelD
  • 1Dor BenyaminiG
  • 27M. BuskilaF
  • 7R. KorineF
  • 16D. LeidnerD
  • 23A. LemkinM
  • 21S. PivenD
  • 15R. AlkokinM
  • 17I. ShavitM
Coach: E. Barda

Form going into Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Hapoel Jerusalem

Ligat Ha'al

  • L1-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva18 October 2026
  • L1-4Maccabi Haifa12 October 2026

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Ligat Ha'al

  • W1-0Ironi Tiberias17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Hapoel Jerusalem102351623-79
1Hapoel Tel Aviv10811216+1525

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

  • 13 February 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 3–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 8 November 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 0–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
  • 29 July 2025Hapoel Tel Aviv 3–0 Hapoel JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 1 April 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 2–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
  • 9 March 2024Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 27 January 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 2–0 Hapoel Tel AvivState Cup

Leading scorers: Hapoel Jerusalem and Hapoel Tel Aviv

Hapoel Jerusalem

GoalsAssists

  • N. Vrasana50
  • A. Idoko42

Hapoel Tel Aviv

GoalsAssists

  • R. Alkokin32
  • E. Boateng32
  • D. Dappa31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hapoel Tel Aviv won 3–0 at Hapoel Jerusalem. The model had made a win for Hapoel Tel Aviv its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Daniel Dappa 42' for Hapoel Tel Aviv, Omri Altman 53' for Hapoel Tel Aviv, Roee alkokin 65' for Hapoel Tel Aviv. On expected goals it finished 0.31–1.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Jerusalem these chances to finish in the bottom three: 13.0% after a win, 22.1% after a draw, 26.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.3%.

For Hapoel Tel Aviv the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 11.3% going in: 13.2% after a win, 8.9% after a draw, 6.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.2%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hapoel Jerusalem v Hapoel Tel Aviv has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 23% / 27% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 20% / 25% / 55%: the biggest move is Hapoel Tel Aviv's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Hapoel Jerusalem win20%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Hapoel Tel Aviv win55%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.