19 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Tottenham vs Coventry Premier League prediction & result

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Referee: Andrew Madley
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Tottenham 3-1 Coventry.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Tottenham, 29% draw, 34% Coventry — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tottenham at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tottenham96%Draw4%Coventry0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽James Maddisonassist: Mohammed Kudus
14'
20'
Caleb Yirenkyi
Dominic Solanke
22'
45'
Jay Dasilva
49'
⚽Jack Rudoniassist: Brandon Thomas-Asante
⚽Omar Marmoushassist: Andrew Robertson
58'
60'
🔁Sidiki Cherifout: Taiwo Awoniyi
60'
🔁Caleb Yirenkyiout: Frank Onyeka
64'
Jack Rudoni
🔁Andrew Robertsonout: Ben Davies
69'
🔁James Maddisonout: Conor Gallagher
69'
🔁Tosin Adarabioyoout: Mateus Fernandes
71'
78'
🔁Brandon Thomas-Asanteout: Ephron Mason-Clark
78'
🔁Tatsuhiro Sakamotoout: Gustavo Hamer
🔁Omar Marmoushout: Mathys Tel
87'
🔁Mohammed Kudusout: Dejan Kulusevski
87'
87'
🔁Jack Rudoniout: Kaine Kesler-Hayden
⚽Ben Daviesassist: Dominic Solanke
90+6'

Match stats — Tottenham vs Coventry

66%Possession34%
16Shots12
5On target1
4Corners4
0.9xG0.83

Goals against chances

Tottenham3 from 0.90 xGmore than the chances were worth
Coventry1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tottenham 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. KinskýG
  • 6J. van HeckeD
  • 4T. AdarabioyoD
  • 37M. van de VenD
  • 3A. RobertsonD
  • 14A. GrayM
  • 16S. TonaliM
  • 20M. KudusM
  • 10J. MaddisonM
  • 22Omar MarmoushM
  • 19D. SolankeF
Substitutes
  • 11M. TelF
  • 68L. Williams-BarnettM
  • 52Callum Latif OlusesiM
  • 21D. KulusevskiM
  • 18Mateus FernandesM
  • 8C. GallagherM
  • 33B. DaviesD
  • 5M. SenesiD
  • 39M. DúbravkaG
Coach: R. De Zerbi
Coventry 4-2-3-1
  • 19C. RushworthG
  • 27M. van EwijkD
  • 4B. ThomasD
  • 2E. PinnockD
  • 3J. DasilvaD
  • 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
  • 6M. GrimesM
  • 7T. SakamotoM
  • 5J. RudoniM
  • 23B. Thomas-AsanteM
  • 49S. CherifF
Substitutes
  • 29V. TorpM
  • 10E. Mason-ClarkM
  • 9E. SimmsF
  • 14T. AwoniyiF
  • 38G. HamerM
  • 16F. OnyekaM
  • 25D. BentleyG
  • 12S. MfuniD
  • 20K. Kesler-HaydenD
Coach: F. Lampard

Form going into Tottenham vs Coventry

Tottenham

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026

Coventry

Premier League

  • W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Tottenham103341011-112
17Coventry103071019-99

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Coventry

  • 18 September 2024Coventry 1–2 TottenhamLeague Cup
  • 5 January 2013Tottenham 3–0 CoventryFA Cup

The result against the call

Tottenham beat Coventry 3–1. The model had made a win for Tottenham its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: James Maddison 14' for Tottenham, Jack Rudoni 49' for Coventry, Omar Marmoush 58' for Tottenham, Ben Davies 90+6' for Tottenham. On expected goals it finished 0.90–0.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tottenham a 54.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 47.0% after a win, 56.3% after a draw, 60.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.0%, 7 points lower than before the match.

For Coventry the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.1% going in: 17.6% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 28.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.6%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Tottenham v Coventry has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 41% / 31% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Coventry's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Tottenham win37%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Coventry win34%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.