24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Green Stadium, Nof HaGalil
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ironi Tiberias 1-1 Maccabi Netanya.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Ironi Tiberias, 27% draw, 37% Maccabi Netanya — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Maccabi Netanya at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ironi Tiberias0%Draw4%Maccabi Netanya96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Chris Kouakouout: Eden Shamir
42'
45+1'
⚽Oz Bilu
60'
Valentin Simion
63'
🔁Dor Hugyout: Basam Zaarura
63'
🔁Isaac Rodrigues de Limaout: Yarin Abuhatzera
🔁ron ungerout: Guy Sanker
67'
69'
🔁Valentin Simionout: Maor Levi
69'
🔁alon azugiout: Karm Jaber
76'
Aziz Ouattara Mohammed
🔁Artur Miranyanout: M. Badjie
79'
🔁niv gotliebout: bar cohen
79'
David Keltjens
82'
83'
🔁Oz Biluout: Eylon Almog
⚽bar cohen
90+2'

Match stats — Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya

44%Possession56%
15Shots35
10On target10
4Corners10
1.69xG4.42

Goals against chances

Ironi Tiberias1 from 1.69 xGless than the chances were worth
Maccabi Netanya1 from 4.42 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ironi Tiberias 4-4-2
  • 22I. SharonG
  • 17R. UngerD
  • 37O. BačoD
  • 13Z. MorganD
  • 47D. GolaniD
  • 11niv gotliebM
  • 3D. KeltjensM
  • 23C. KouakouM
  • 84N. GbambléM
  • 9A. MiranyanF
  • 12Ghanam CaseF
Substitutes
  • 77A. YehudaF
  • 10B. CohenM
  • 30M. BadjieF
  • 1G. AmosG
  • 8A. CohenM
  • 5N. ChenD
  • 14G. SankerD
  • 18E. ShamirM
  • 27Y. SwisaM
Coach: A. Ziv
Maccabi Netanya 4-2-3-1
  • 22SamuG
  • 12A. AzugiD
  • 23O. VerdonD
  • 6B. KonatéD
  • 2G. MorozovD
  • 32A. OuattaraM
  • 98G. SimionM
  • 10O. BiluM
  • 11D. HugiM
  • 7IsaacM
  • 83Matheus DavóF
Substitutes
  • 9E. AlmogF
  • 1N. AntmanG
  • 44Benny FeldmanD
  • 26K. JaberD
  • 5D. KulikovD
  • 15M. LeviM
  • 13N. NiddamM
  • 16B. ZaaruraM
  • 17Y. AbuhaziraF
Coach: R. Levy

Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya

Ironi Tiberias

Ligat Ha'al

  • L0-1away to Hapoel Tel Aviv17 October 2026
  • L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva10 October 2026

Maccabi Netanya

Ligat Ha'al

  • W1-0Ironi Kiryat Shmona17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Ironi Tiberias102441014-44
6Maccabi Netanya10442168+816

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya

  • 3 July 2026Ironi Tiberias 3–3 Maccabi NetanyaFriendlies Clubs
  • 10 May 2026Ironi Tiberias 4–3 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
  • 3 January 2026Ironi Tiberias 4–0 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
  • 20 September 2025Maccabi Netanya 5–2 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
  • 8 March 2025Maccabi Netanya 1–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
  • 9 December 2024Ironi Tiberias 2–3 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Netanya

Ironi Tiberias

No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Maccabi Netanya

GoalsAssists

  • Matheus Davó52
  • O. Bilu33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Netanya drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Maccabi Netanya at 37% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Oz Bilu 45+1' for Maccabi Netanya, bar cohen 90+2' for Ironi Tiberias. On expected goals it finished 1.69–4.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ironi Tiberias a 46.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 37.4% after a win, 48.0% after a draw, 54.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.0%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

For Maccabi Netanya the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 34.2% going in: 42.1% after a win, 33.0% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.0%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ironi Tiberias v Maccabi Netanya has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 39% / 26% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Ironi Tiberias's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Ironi Tiberias win36%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Maccabi Netanya win37%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.