Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Petah Tikva Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Ramat Gan 1-2 Maccabi Petah Tikva.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Hapoel Ramat Gan, 26% draw, 34% Maccabi Petah Tikva — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Hapoel Ramat Gan at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 55Amit RaifG
- 2Getachew YabeloD
- 17O. YitzhakD
- 4Márcio SilvaD
- 33F. IbrahimD
- 3D. TischlerD
- 99Luan CamposM
- 66S. MijailovićM
- 6G. NaorM
- 10M. SemelM
- 9M. NoubissiF
- 5Jota GonçalvesD
- 8I. BarnesF
- 20C. BonifaceM
- 24T. GlazerM
- 21I. OliM
- 7M. PlakushchenkoM
- 16A. ZurD
- 11D. AsankaF
- 22A. YankoG
- 1D. HevronG
- 26G. DeznetD
- 6E. YaoD
- 18E. TibiD
- 22Bashar AbdachD
- 17A. SalemD
- 9S. OwusuM
- 20I. CohenM
- 99Eyal InbrumM
- 77J. CortésM
- 53L. HazanF
- 97M. RakonjacF
- 44P. KorreaD
- 27Y. KorenF
- 24L. KasaM
- 23G. HadidaM
- 39M. ErlichG
- 30O. DadyaD
- 12I. BaruchD
- 7K. SpenceF
Form going into Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Ligat Ha'al
- W2-0away to Hapoel Haifa17 October 2026
- L0-4Beitar Jerusalem11 October 2026
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al
- L1-2Maccabi Haifa17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
- 9 August 2026Maccabi Petah Tikva 2–1 Hapoel Ramat GanToto Cup Ligat Al
- 5 May 2026Hapoel Ramat Gan 1–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLiga Leumit
- 12 January 2026Maccabi Petah Tikva 2–2 Hapoel Ramat GanLiga Leumit
- 17 September 2025Hapoel Ramat Gan 0–3 Maccabi Petah TikvaLiga Leumit
- 17 January 2023Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–0 Hapoel Ramat GanLiga Leumit
- 18 October 2022Hapoel Ramat Gan 0–3 Maccabi Petah TikvaState Cup
Leading scorers: Hapoel Ramat Gan and Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Ramat Gan
GoalsAssists
- Luan Campos31
Maccabi Petah Tikva
GoalsAssists
- J. Cortés41
- L. Hazan31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Maccabi Petah Tikva won 2–1 at Hapoel Ramat Gan. The model had leaned towards a win for Hapoel Ramat Gan at 40% and given a win for Maccabi Petah Tikva 34%. The goals: José Cortés 3' for Maccabi Petah Tikva, José Cortés 40' for Maccabi Petah Tikva, Luan De Campos Cristino Da Silva 59' for Hapoel Ramat Gan. On expected goals it finished 1.83–1.01.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Ramat Gan a 34.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.1% after a win, 35.8% after a draw, 42.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.6%, 8.3 points higher than before the match.
For Maccabi Petah Tikva the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 46.5% going in: 35.6% after a win, 46.9% after a draw, 54.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.6%, 10.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.