18 October 2026, 23:15 UTC

Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra, Cordoba
Referee: P. Dovalo
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Belgrano Cordoba 0-3 River Plate.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Belgrano Cordoba, 32% draw, 25% River Plate — fair odds of 2.33, 3.13 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Belgrano Cordoba at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Belgrano Cordoba0%Draw1%River Plate99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Lisandro López
29'
45+3'
⚽Tomás Ezequiel Galvánassist: Gonzalo Montiel
45+3'
•Tomás Ezequiel Galván
Adrian Sanchez
45+8'
49'
⚽Ángel Correaassist: Lucas Beltran
Franco Vázquez
51'
Lisandro López
61'
67'
Lucas Beltran
🔁Lucas Passeriniout: Nicolás Fernández
68'
🔁Ramiro Hernandesout: Ramiro Tulián
68'
68'
🔁Tobías Andradaout: Fausto Vera
68'
🔁Lucas Beltranout: Sebastián Driussi
72'
⚽Thiago Almadaassist: Tomás Ezequiel Galván
73'
🔁Gonzalo Montielout: Giovanni Gonzalez
🔁Adrian Spörleout: Juan Velázquez
73'
🔁Franco Vázquezout: Francisco González Metilli
79'
🔁Emiliano Rigoniout: Lautaro Ismael Gutierrez
79'
82'
🔁Fausto Veraout: Juan Cruz Meza
90+2'
•Ángel Correa
90+4'
Lucas Martinez Quarta

Match stats — Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate

42%Possession58%
12Shots14
4On target7
4Corners7
1.08xG1.16

Goals against chances

Belgrano Cordoba0 from 1.08 xGless than the chances were worth
River Plate3 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Belgrano Cordoba 4-2-3-1
  • 25T. CardozoG
  • 14L. MoralesD
  • 2A. MaldonadoD
  • 17Lisandro LópezD
  • 3A. SpörleD
  • 21A. SánchezM
  • 20F. VázquezM
  • 24E. RigoniM
  • 10L. ZelarayánM
  • 8R. HernandesM
  • 9L. PasseriniF
Substitutes
  • 45A. FalconD
  • 22N. FernándezF
  • 11F. GonzálezM
  • 37L. GutierrezF
  • 5S. LongoM
  • 13Álvaro OcampoD
  • 16F. RiccaD
  • 15R. TuliánM
  • 53J. VelazquezF
Coach: R. Zielinski
River Plate 4-1-3-2
  • 41S. BeltránG
  • 29G. MontielD
  • 28L. MartínezD
  • 30N. OtamendiD
  • 3F. OrtegaD
  • 6A. MorenoM
  • 50T. AndradaM
  • 23T. AlmadaM
  • 26T. GalvánM
  • 10Á. CorreaF
  • 18L. BeltránF
Substitutes
  • 33E. CenturiónG
  • 19R. BorréF
  • 8M. ArambarriM
  • 9S. DriussiF
  • 27Santiago Joaquín EspíndolaM
  • 20G. GonzálezD
  • 31F. GonzálezD
  • 24J. MezaM
  • 25L. PereyraF
Coach: Leonardo Ponzio

Form going into Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate

Belgrano Cordoba

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-0away to Racing Club11 October 2026

River Plate

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Belgrano Cordoba166551715+223
4River Plate168262114+726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate

  • 24 May 2026River Plate 2–3 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 5 April 2026River Plate 3–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 May 2024River Plate 3–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 3 December 2023River Plate 2–1 Belgrano CordobaCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 4 February 2023Belgrano Cordoba 2–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 18 August 2018River Plate 0–0 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina

The full Belgrano Cordoba vs River Plate record →

Leading scorers: Belgrano Cordoba and River Plate

Belgrano Cordoba

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

River Plate

GoalsAssists

  • T. Galván74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

River Plate won 3–0 at Belgrano Cordoba. The model had leaned towards a win for Belgrano Cordoba at 43% and given a win for River Plate 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tomás Ezequiel Galván 45+3' for River Plate, Ángel Correa 49' for River Plate, Thiago Almada 72' for River Plate. On expected goals it finished 1.08–1.16.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Belgrano Cordoba a 83.5% chance to finish in the top four: 94.4% after a win, 80.1% after a draw, 68.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.0%, 15.5 points lower than before the match.

For River Plate the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.5% going in: 24.4% after a win, 4.9% after a draw, 1.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.4%, 15.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Belgrano Cordoba v River Plate has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 39% / 32% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 43% / 32% / 25%: the biggest move is Belgrano Cordoba's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Belgrano Cordoba win43%▲ +4
  2. Draw32%=
  3. River Plate win25%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.