Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Estudiantes La Plata 1-2 San Lorenzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Estudiantes La Plata, 33% draw, 19% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.08, 3.03 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Estudiantes La Plata at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. IacovichG
- 14L. GonzálezD
- 5M. RojoD
- 24T. PalaciosD
- 13G. BenedettiD
- 7J. SosaM
- 52B. KociubinskiM
- 18E. CetréM
- 34M. MonsalveM
- 32J. CorreaM
- 27L. AlarioF
- 15S. ArzamendiaD
- 28B. AguirreF
- 12R. BorzoneG
- 9G. CarrilloF
- 19A. GaichF
- 31B. GallegoM
- 40E. MancusoD
- 4S. NúñezD
- 10T. PalaciosM
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 16G. CorujoD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 19E. AmorD
- 32E. HerreraM
- 24N. TripichioM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 3T. RodríguezM
- 38F. FaríasM
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 30O. AriasD
- 34Maximo Atrio
- 35A. CordobaD
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 42F. LorenzónD
- 39Elián Uriel OjedaM
- 27M. RíoM
- 44Enzo Alan SalasF
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
Estudiantes La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago10 October 2026
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
- 3 April 2026San Lorenzo 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 November 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 February 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 September 2023Estudiantes La Plata 0–0 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 21 June 2023Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 August 2022San Lorenzo 0–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Estudiantes La Plata and San Lorenzo
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- R. Auzmendi72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Lorenzo won 2–1 at Estudiantes La Plata. The model had leaned towards a win for Estudiantes La Plata at 48% and given a win for San Lorenzo 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Edwuin Cetre (penalty) 14' for Estudiantes La Plata, Guzman corujo 44' for San Lorenzo, Facundo Gulli 90+5' for San Lorenzo. On expected goals it finished 1.02–0.94.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estudiantes La Plata these chances to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.4% after a draw, 8.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.3%.
For San Lorenzo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 13.5% going in: under 1% after a win, 8.8% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 12.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Estudiantes La Plata v San Lorenzo has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 43% / 35% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 33% / 19%: the biggest move is Estudiantes La Plata's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Estudiantes La Plata win48%▲ +5
- Draw33%▼ −2
- San Lorenzo win19%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.