18 October 2026, 17:45 UTC

Racing Club vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Avellaneda
Referee: F. Tello
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Racing Club 1-1 Independiente.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Racing Club, 30% draw, 30% Independiente — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Racing Club at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Racing Club3%Draw94%Independiente3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Juan Barinaga
6'
Matías Zaracho
17'
⚽Matías Zaracho
29'
45'
🔁Luciano Cabralout: Matías Abaldo
Mateo Ezequiel Martínez
49'
Gonzalo Escudero
64'
65'
⚽Maximiliano Meza (pen)
🔁Tomás Conechnyout: Duván Vergara
72'
🔁Matías Zarachoout: Diego Ulises·Ortegoza
72'
🔁Matías Kranevitterout: Leonel Pérez
73'
🔁Juan Barinagaout: Ezequiel Cannavo
76'
78'
🔁Chimy Ávilaout: Iván Morales
78'
🔁Santiago Ariasout: Leonardo Godoy
🔁Lautaro Diazout: Elías David Torres
81'
86'
🔁Nahuel Banegasout: Facundo Zabala
87'
Iván Morales
89'
🔁Maximiliano Mezaout: Lautaro Millán
90+2'
Leonardo Godoy
Leonel Pérez
90+3'

Match stats — Racing Club vs Independiente

53%Possession47%
9Shots10
3On target3
8Corners4
1.27xG1.09

Goals against chances

Racing Club1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
Independiente1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Racing Club 4-3-3
  • 25F. CambesesG
  • 14J. BarinagaD
  • 38M. MartinezD
  • 43G. EscuderoD
  • 19I. RodríguezD
  • 11M. ZarachoM
  • 5M. KranevitterM
  • 20G. LodicoM
  • 32L. DíazF
  • 9A. MartínezF
  • 17T. ConechnyF
Substitutes
  • 18A. EspinoD
  • 24A. FernándezM
  • 23N. ColomboD
  • 40F. FragaF
  • 16D. OrtegozaM
  • 33L. PérezM
  • 2M. PérezD
  • 30M. TagliamonteG
  • 46A. TelloM
Coach: S. Romero
Independiente 4-3-3
  • 33R. ReyG
  • 4S. AriasD
  • 36S. ValdezD
  • 35J. ArrayagoD
  • 5N. BanegasD
  • 16M. PerezM
  • 23I. MarconeM
  • 8M. MezaM
  • 7S. MontielF
  • 6E. ÁvilaF
  • 10L. CabralF
Substitutes
  • 2F. CalderónD
  • 13J. FedorcoD
  • 29L. GodoyD
  • 32D. MartínezM
  • 77S. MeleG
  • 14Lautaro MillánM
  • 9I. MoralesF
  • 24J. PalaisM
  • 30Tomás ParmoM
Coach: Jádson Viera

Form going into Racing Club vs Independiente

Racing Club

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-2Belgrano Cordoba11 October 2026

Independiente

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Racing Club164391624-815
7Independiente166551516-123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Racing Club vs Independiente

  • 4 April 2026Independiente 1–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 28 September 2025Racing Club 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 16 March 2025Independiente 1–1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 August 2024Racing Club 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 February 2024Independiente 0–1 Racing ClubCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 30 September 2023Racing Club 0–2 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Racing Club vs Independiente record →

Leading scorers: Racing Club and Independiente

Racing Club

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Independiente

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos115

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Racing Club and Independiente drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Racing Club at 40% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Matías Zaracho 29' for Racing Club, Maximiliano Meza (penalty) 65' for Independiente. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Racing Club a 36.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.5% after a win, 43.8% after a draw, 55.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.8%, 7.1 points higher than before the match.

For Independiente the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.3% going in: 12.1% after a win, 3.4% after a draw, 1.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 3.4%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.