19 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan Premier League prediction & result

Stadion Torpedo, Zhodino
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Torpedo Zhodino 1-0 Naftan.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Torpedo Zhodino, 22% draw, 19% Naftan — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Torpedo Zhodino at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Torpedo Zhodino97%Draw3%Naftan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

40'
alexander savitsky
⚽Aleksandr Lomovitskiyassist: Kirill Premudrov
57'
🔁Grenik Petrosyanout: Grigoriy Martyanov
63'
🔁Artem Bykovout: Timofey Sharkovskiy
63'
Aleksey Zaleskiy
66'
70'
🔁Marlen Aymanovout: Timur Galimzyanov
70'
🔁Artem Drabatovichout: ignat pranovich
🔁Aleksandr Frantsuzovout: Dmitriy Yusov
80'
86'
🔁Andrei Lebedevout: Artem Voskoboynikov
Aleksandr Lomovitskiy
90+1'
🔁Aleksandr Lomovitskiyout: Great Nnaji Agbo
90+1'
90+3'
Roman khadzhiev

Match stats — Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan

55%Possession45%
10Shots11
5On target8
6Corners5

Line-ups

Torpedo Zhodino 4-3-3
  • 25T. YurasovG
  • 30V. PobudeyD
  • 3Yevhen ChagovetsD
  • 13A. ZaleskiyD
  • 96V. MelkoD
  • 68D. ZhulpaM
  • 6K. PremudrovM
  • 7A. BykovM
  • 11A. LomovitskiyF
  • 89A. FrantsuzovF
  • 9G. PetrosyanF
Substitutes
  • 16N. AgboF
  • 66A. AgeevD
  • 27M. GaevoyM
  • 20G. MartjanovD
  • 99M. MaslennikovG
  • 90N. MatusevichF
  • 47V. NalivaykoF
  • 10T. SharkovskiyM
  • 28D. YusovF
Coach: Denis Karolik
Naftan 5-4-1
  • 16D. SadovskiyG
  • 97V. ChernyavskiyD
  • 8A. StefanishinD
  • 5Andrey LebedevD
  • 69Roman khadzhievD
  • 9V. YakovlevD
  • 88A. DrabatovichM
  • 50G. MafwentaM
  • 24I. SeleznevM
  • 10A. SavitskiyM
  • 30Marlen AymanovF
Substitutes
  • 14I. ChmutD
  • 22V. FezhenkoM
  • 57T. GalimzyanovM
  • 13A. KharitonovichG
  • 21K. KirkitskiyM
  • 20E. LeshchenokM
  • 11I. PranovichM
  • 25Jorge Garcia de la Torre ArmasF
  • 7A. TumanovD
Coach: Aleksandr Khrapkovskiy

Form going into Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan

Torpedo Zhodino

Premier League

  • L0-2away to ML Vitebsk15 October 2026

Naftan

Premier League

  • W4-1Belshina10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Torpedo Zhodino28106123536-136
16Naftan2845192470-4617

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan

  • 29 May 2026Naftan 0–4 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
  • 25 September 2025Torpedo Zhodino 4–2 NaftanPremier League
  • 12 May 2025Naftan 0–3 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
  • 29 September 2024Naftan 1–1 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
  • 12 May 2024Torpedo Zhodino 2–1 NaftanPremier League
  • 8 October 2023Naftan 0–1 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League

The result against the call

Torpedo Zhodino beat Naftan 1–0. The model had made a win for Torpedo Zhodino its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Aleksandr Lomovitskiy 57' for Torpedo Zhodino.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Naftan a 97.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 92.3% after a win, 97.4% after a draw, 98.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 98.9%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Torpedo Zhodino v Naftan has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 56% / 23% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 59% / 22% / 19%: the biggest move is Torpedo Zhodino's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Torpedo Zhodino win59%▲ +3
  2. Draw22%▼ −1
  3. Naftan win19%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.