19 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Premier League prediction & result

Stadion Dinamo, Minsk
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Dinamo Minsk 2-0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.

Before kick-off the model made it 70% Dinamo Minsk, 18% draw, 12% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Minsk at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Minsk99%Draw1%Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽karen vardanyanassist: Artem Sokolovskiy
40'
45'
🔁Andrei Zaleskiout: Khetag Badoev
🔁Artem Sokolovskiyout: Vladislav Poloz
57'
⚽karen vardanyan
66'
🔁Evgeni Malashevichout: Gulzhigit Alykulov
73'
🔁Moustapha Djimetout: Leonard Chatelin·Gweth
73'
74'
🔁Vladislav Vasilyevout: Maksim·Matveev
80'
🔁Dmitri Antilevskiout: Valeri Gorbachik
80'
🔁Daniel Volskiyout: Ilya Vasin
🔁Aleksey Vakulichout: Roman Begunov
82'

Match stats — Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

55%Possession45%
13Shots5
8On target3
10Corners3

Line-ups

Dinamo Minsk 4-3-3
  • 47A. KudravetsG
  • 3M. ShvetsovD
  • 12A. IvanovD
  • 26V. KalininD
  • 24A. VakulichD
  • 78A. SokolovskiyM
  • 8A. SelyavaM
  • 42F. AbdullahiM
  • 30M. DjimetF
  • 10K. VardanyanF
  • 7E. MalashevichF
Substitutes
  • 27M. AleksandrovD
  • 11G. AlykulovM
  • 17I. BakharF
  • 67R. BegunovD
  • 2M. DubatovkaD
  • 5D. DushevskiyM
  • 80L. GwethF
  • 13V. PolozM
  • 1I. ShimakovichG
Coach: A. Shagoyko
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 3-5-2
  • 1I. SankoG
  • 31A. ZaleskiyD
  • 41D. LutikD
  • 23D. PolyakovD
  • 2E. BozhkoM
  • 18D. VolskiyM
  • 46V. VasilyevM
  • 77N. SotnikovM
  • 13I. OreshkevichM
  • 69R. ErmolinF
  • 90D. AntilevskiyF
Substitutes
  • 4RamiresD
  • 79K. BadoevM
  • 33V. GorbachikF
  • 8N. KaplenkoM
  • 71M. MatveevD
  • 10S. SazonchikM
  • 30A. SorokoG
  • 26V. TkachenkoM
  • 11D. TsallagovM
Coach: Igor Voronkov

Form going into Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Dinamo Minsk

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Slavia Mozyr15 October 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev11 October 2026
  • D0-0SC Braga13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to SC Braga6 August 2026
  • L0-1Neftchi Baku30 July 2026

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Premier League

  • L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Dinamo Minsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Dinamo Minsk2819455123+2861
12Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2869132546-2127

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Minsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

  • 30 May 2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–1 Dinamo MinskPremier League
  • 8 November 2025Dinamo Minsk 1–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 22 June 2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–1 Dinamo MinskPremier League
  • 29 October 2024Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 1 June 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–2 Dinamo MinskPremier League
  • 11 March 2023Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–2 Dinamo MinskFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

Dinamo Minsk beat Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Dinamo Minsk at 70%. The goals: karen vardanyan 40' for Dinamo Minsk, karen vardanyan 66' for Dinamo Minsk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dinamo Minsk a 23.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 26.0% after a win, 14.6% after a draw, 11.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Arsenal Dzerzhinsk the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.2% going in: 5.6% after a win, 13.8% after a draw, 21.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.6%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.