7 November 2026, 16:15 UTC

Mantova vs Hellas Verona Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Referee: Guiseppe Collu
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Mantova 0-0 Hellas Verona.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Mantova, 27% draw, 36% Hellas Verona — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mantova at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mantova4%Draw92%Hellas Verona4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

35'
Andrias Edmundsson
Rachid Kouda
43'
🔁Vanja Vlahovicout: matteo spinacce
60'
🔁Davide Bragantiniout: Rares Ilie
60'
62'
Gabriele Zappa
🔁Rachid Koudaout: Lorenzo Ignacchiti
64'
🔁Filippo Vesentiniout: Nicolo Radaelli
65'
67'
🔁Dailon Livramentoout: Kacper Sezonienko
67'
🔁Amin Sarrout: Caleb Ekuban
77'
🔁Abdou Harrouiout: andrea le borgne
🔁Francesco Ruoccoout: Ismael Cajazzo
82'
88'
🔁Daniel Mosqueraout: Samuele Mulattieri
88'
🔁Antoine Bernedeout: Nunzio Lella

Match stats — Mantova vs Hellas Verona

40%Possession60%
15Shots13
1On target3
3Corners3
1.37xG1.27

Goals against chances

Mantova0 from 1.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Hellas Verona0 from 1.27 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomaševićD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 77F. VesentiniM
  • 21S. TrimboliM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 30D. BragantiniM
  • 19F. RuoccoM
  • 99V. VlahovićF
Substitutes
  • 71Federico ChinettiF
  • 11I. CajazzoM
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 9E. GliozziF
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 8R. IlieM
  • 6J. MboyoM
  • 75E. KošpoD
  • 13A. MeroniD
Coach: F. Modesto
Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1
  • 34S. PerilliG
  • 4G. ZappaD
  • 5A. EdmundssonD
  • 27P. DawidowiczD
  • 3M. FreseD
  • 24A. BernedeM
  • 44E. IannoniM
  • 14D. LivramentoM
  • 21A. HarrouiM
  • 9A. SarrM
  • 25D. MosqueraF
Substitutes
  • 79K. SezonienkoF
  • 19S. MulattieriF
  • 23N. LellaM
  • 1N. LealiG
  • 17A. Le BorgneM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 71D. De BattistiD
  • 70F. ChamD
  • 37N. CalabreseD
Coach: M. Baroni

Form going into Mantova vs Hellas Verona

Mantova

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Modena31 October 2026
  • L0-2Cremonese27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Virtus Entella24 October 2026
  • L0-2Palermo17 October 2026

Hellas Verona

Serie B

  • W3-0Carrarese1 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Juve Stabia28 October 2026
  • D1-1Pisa25 October 2026
  • D2-2Catanzaro16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Mantova had two goals or fewer.
  • Mantova failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Mantova conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Hellas Verona went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Mantova115421511+419
7Hellas Verona114431913+616

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Mantova and Hellas Verona

Mantova

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ruocco50

Hellas Verona

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mosquera70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mantova and Hellas Verona drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Mantova at 37% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.37–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mantova a 7.3% chance to finish in the top two: 9.0% after a win, 6.4% after a draw, 5.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.4%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

For Hellas Verona the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 12.5% going in: 15.6% after a win, 12.0% after a draw, 9.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 12.0%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mantova v Hellas Verona has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 46% / 24% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Mantova's chance of winning, down 9 points.

  1. Mantova win37%▼ −9
  2. Draw27%▲ +3
  3. Hellas Verona win36%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.