Padova vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Padova 2-2 Empoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Padova, 29% draw, 25% Empoli — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Padova at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Padova vs Empoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. SorrentinoG
- 24L. CarissoniD
- 18E. SillettiD
- 58C. PastinaD
- 17A. CapelliM
- 21E. ZuelliM
- 14M. PompettiM
- 7K. VarasM
- 34M. CocchiM
- 9L. MoroF
- 90G. ArtisticoF
- 5M. LovatoD
- 25N. GalazziM
- 74D. MarcoliniM
- 1L. MouquetG
- 12S. ScagliaG
- 11A. SeghettiF
- 8P. FusiM
- 72C. FaedoD
- 23F. Di MarianoM
- 12J. SeghettiG
- 36D. BembnistaD
- 28G. IndragoliD
- 25M. CurtoD
- 98K. ZedadkaM
- 23F. BandinelliM
- 21Gerard YepesM
- 10E. SaporitiM
- 91N. CorradoM
- 15J. CeesayF
- 77B. PopovF
- 37Diego AntoniniD
- 40R. BerizziD
- 39E. BiondiniM
- 5D. Degli InnocentiM
- 44L. DeliM
- 20F. DistefanoF
- 35M. EganD
- 13E. FilippisG
- 1S. PerisanG
Form going into Padova vs Empoli
Padova
Serie B
- D1-1away to Catanzaro31 October 2026
- W2-0Sudtirol27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avellino24 October 2026
- L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026
Empoli
Serie B
- D2-2Juve Stabia1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Cesena27 October 2026
- L0-2Vicenza Virtus23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026
What these results say
- Padova scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Padova had two goals or fewer.
- Empoli did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Empoli conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Empoli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 19 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Padova vs Empoli
- 12 April 2026Padova 1–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 23 August 2025Empoli 3–1 PadovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Padova and Empoli
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Empoli
GoalsAssists
- E. Saporiti40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Padova and Empoli drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Padova at 46% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gabriele Artistico 14' for Padova, Joseph Ceesay 30' for Empoli, Christian Pastina 36' for Padova, Filippo Di Stefano 64' for Empoli. On expected goals it finished 1.10–1.84.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Padova a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.8% after a win, 6.6% after a draw, 7.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.6%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
For Empoli the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 41.5% going in: 32.5% after a win, 41.1% after a draw, 45.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 41.1%.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Padova v Empoli has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Padova's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Padova win46%▲ +5
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Empoli win25%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.