7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Juve Stabia vs Arezzo Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Romeo Menti, Castellammare di Stabia
Referee: Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Juve Stabia 1-0 Arezzo.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Juve Stabia, 26% draw, 20% Arezzo — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Juve Stabia at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Juve Stabia97%Draw3%Arezzo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Giusepe Sibilliassist: Terrence Douglas
2'
35'
Julian Illanes
36'
Samuele Righetti
45'
🔁Samuele Righettiout: Andrea Cagnano
45'
🔁Shaka Mawuli Ekluout: mattia sala
🔁Fabio Maistroout: Nicola Patane
60'
🔁Thomas Battistellaout: Nermin Karić
60'
63'
🔁Alberto Cerriout: Pietro Cianci
63'
🔁Alessandro Arenaout: Emiliano Pattarello
Giusepe Sibilli
66'
Nicola Patane
73'
73'
🔁Camillo Tavernelliout: Marco Olivieri
🔁Antonio Di Nardoout: Leonardo Candellone
74'
🔁Giusepe Sibilliout: Sana Fernandes
75'
🔁Christian Pierobonout: Matteo Baldi
84'
90+4'
Andrea Cagnano

Match stats — Juve Stabia vs Arezzo

49%Possession51%
9Shots14
3On target3
6Corners8
1.13xG1.28

Goals against chances

Juve Stabia1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth
Arezzo0 from 1.28 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Juve Stabia 4-3-3
  • 1A. VukovićG
  • 96T. MaggioniD
  • 87D. BettellaD
  • 6M. BellichD
  • 25T. DouglasD
  • 10C. PierobonM
  • 80F. ArtioliM
  • 5T. BattistellaM
  • 37F. MaistroF
  • 9Antonio Di NardoF
  • 33G. SibilliF
Substitutes
  • 23P. BoerG
  • 4M. BaldiD
  • 8D. BuglioM
  • 20L. CaccavoF
  • 27L. CandelloneF
  • 92F. GalleaD
  • 17N. KarićM
  • 24J. KumiM
  • 77S. FernandesF
Coach: P. De Giorgio
Arezzo 4-3-3
  • 14A. NunzianteG
  • 6A. RenziD
  • 5J. IllanesD
  • 4M. CoppolaroD
  • 37S. RighettiD
  • 8S. MawuliM
  • 78Gennaro IaccarinoM
  • 17A. IoniţăM
  • 30A. ArenaF
  • 9A. CerriF
  • 21C. TavernelliF
Substitutes
  • 16Mattia SalaM
  • 10E. PattarelloF
  • 99M. OlivieriF
  • 2M. MenaD
  • 47Aleandro ManesM
  • 11L. MancusoF
  • 7Giuseppe Kevin LeoneM
  • 13M. GilliD
  • 67Gianmarco FerrariD
Coach: C. Bucchi

Form going into Juve Stabia vs Arezzo

Juve Stabia

Serie B

  • D2-2away to Empoli1 November 2026
  • L0-1Hellas Verona28 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Cremonese24 October 2026
  • W3-0Sudtirol18 October 2026

Arezzo

Serie B

  • D0-0Ascoli1 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Carrarese28 October 2026
  • L0-3Benevento24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sampdoria18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Juve Stabia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Arezzo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Arezzo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Arezzo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Juve Stabia114431211+112
14Arezzo11326920-1111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Juve Stabia and Arezzo

Juve Stabia

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Di Nardo70

Arezzo

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Juve Stabia beat Arezzo 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Juve Stabia at 54%. The goal: Giusepe Sibilli 2' for Juve Stabia. On expected goals it finished 1.13–1.28.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Juve Stabia a 10.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.9% after a win, 12.2% after a draw, 13.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.9%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

For Arezzo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 49.8% going in: 38.8% after a win, 49.2% after a draw, 53.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.4%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Juve Stabia v Arezzo has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Juve Stabia's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Juve Stabia win54%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Arezzo win20%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.