Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-3 CSKA Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 27% draw, 25% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 48% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia
Line-ups
- 22O. MelikaG
- 41I. Ben HamoD
- 5M. CamaraD
- 13R. ShlomoD
- 25S. RosenD
- 30I. NoyM
- 36I. ShaharM
- 28I. SissokhoM
- 42D. PeretzM
- 29H. VarelaM
- 34S. Abu FarkhiF
- 90R. MishpatiG
- 6T. AsanteD
- 9E. SoklerF
- 10K. AndradeM
- 18D. GlazerM
- 19E. MadmonF
- 21N. Ben HarushD
- 23O. N. Azo
- 24N. SchwartzD
- 21F. Lapoukhov
- 2PastorD
- 14T. IvanovD
- 32F. RodriguezD
- 17A. MartinoD
- 7M. EbongM
- 6B. JordaoM
- 8S. SensiM
- 5J. GbaminD
- 9L. GodoyF
- 28I. PittasF
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 10J. ZwartsF
- 11M. BrahimiM
- 19A. YordanovD
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 34V. KaymakanovM
- 38Leo PereiraM
- 77A. PiedrahitaM
- 80G. B. ChorbadzhiyskiM
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- W1-0Sheriff Tiraspol30 July 2026
- W5-0away to Sheriff Tiraspol23 July 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- D0-0Qarabag30 July 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Qarabag23 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Maccabi Tel Aviv and CSKA Sofia in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Ligat Ha'al | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 12 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | First League | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 23 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligat Ha'al · First League
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia
- 6 August 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–3 CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and CSKA Sofia
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Dor Peretz4 goals1 assists
- E. Sokler2 goals1 assists
- O. Davida2 goals
CSKA Sofia
- Bruno Jordão1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.