Blackburn vs Middlesbrough Championship prediction & result
Final score: Blackburn 2-1 Middlesbrough.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Blackburn, 22% draw, 56% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 4.55, 4.55 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 56% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Balázs TóthG
- 2Ryan AlebiosuD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 15Sean McLoughlinD
- 3Harry PickeringD
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 25Ryoya MorishitaM
- 10Todd CantwellM
- 21Oladapo AfolayanM
- 9Andri GuðjohnsenF
- 1Aynsley PearsG
- 17Hayden CarterD
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 5Sidnei TavaresM
- 30Jake GarrettM
- 28Adam ForshawM
- 11Jayden FevrierF
- 29Mathias JørgensenF
- 23Yuki OhashiF
- 1Radek VitekG
- 2Callum BrittainD
- 12Luke AylingD
- 29Adilson MalandaD
- 17Maximilian ArfstenD
- 6Sebastian BerhalterM
- 14Myles Peart-HarrisM
- 10Aidan MorrisM
- 16Jeremy SarmientoM
- 11Morgan WhittakerF
- 7Will LankshearF
- 31Solomon BrynnG
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 5Alfie JonesD
- 42Abdoulaye KantéM
- 46Finlay CartwrightM
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 8Riley McGreeM
- 22Kyle JosephF
- 44Cruz IbehM
Form going into Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
Blackburn
- D2-2away to Wolves14 August 2026
Middlesbrough
- W2-1Lincoln15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
- 22 August 2026Blackburn 2–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 21 March 2026Blackburn 0–0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 26 December 2025Middlesbrough 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 4 April 2025Blackburn 0–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 11 January 2025Middlesbrough 0–1 BlackburnFA Cup
- 27 November 2024Middlesbrough 0–1 BlackburnChampionship
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Middlesbrough
Blackburn
- A. Guðjohnsen3 goals1 assists
Middlesbrough
- W. Lankshear6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.