Derby vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result
Final score: Derby 2-2 Cardiff.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Derby, 23% draw, 25% Cardiff — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 52% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derby vs Cardiff
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
- 22Max JohnstonD
- 28Dion SandersonD
- 6Sondre LangåsD
- 18Charlie TaylorD
- 27Lewis TravisM
- 20Alex MowattM
- 8Bobby ClarkM
- 29Oscar FrauloM
- 33Corey Blackett-TaylorM
- 9Carlton MorrisF
- 31Josh VickersG
- 3Craig ForsythD
- 24Ryan NyambeD
- 23Joe WardM
- 37Owen EamesM
- 26Ryan HedgesM
- 15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenF
- 13Filip BilbijaM
- 10Rhian BrewsterF
- 1Nathan TrottG
- 44Ronan KpakioD
- 38Perry NgD
- 3Joel BaganD
- 23Calum ScanlonD
- 8Jack MoylanM
- 18Alex RobertsonM
- 11Ollie TannerM
- 10Rubin ColwillM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 9Yousef SalechF
- 41Matthew TurnerG
- 30Harry TyrerG
- 40Noah AnyadikeD
- 16Chris WillockM
- 33Rob TankiewiczM
- 27Joel ColwillM
- 14David TurnbullM
- 39Isaak DaviesF
- 47Callum RobinsonF
Form going into Derby vs Cardiff
Derby
- L1-2away to Charlton15 August 2026
Cardiff
- D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Cardiff
- 22 August 2026Derby 2–2 CardiffChampionship
- 25 January 2025Cardiff 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 14 September 2024Derby 1–0 CardiffChampionship
- 7 May 2022Derby 0–1 CardiffChampionship
- 1 March 2022Cardiff 1–0 DerbyChampionship
- 2 March 2021Cardiff 4–0 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and Cardiff
Derby
- B. Clark2 goals2 assists
Cardiff
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.