Lincoln vs Portsmouth Championship prediction & result
Final score: Lincoln 1-3 Portsmouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Lincoln, 22% draw, 31% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lincoln at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lincoln vs Portsmouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1George WickensG
- 2Tendayi DarikwaD
- 22Tom HamerD
- 25Deji ElereweD
- 3Adam ReachD
- 14Conor McGrandlesM
- 24Ivan VarfolomeevM
- 7Reeco Hackett-FairchildM
- 18Ben HouseM
- 16Dom JefferiesM
- 34Freddie DraperF
- 4Andrei CoubișD
- 8Tom BaylissM
- 17Robert StreetF
- 10Mason MeliaF
- 19Tanto OlaofeF
- 46Joe GauciG
- 6Ryley TowlerD
- 26Yunus KonakM
- 20Callum ElderD
- 1Nicolas SchmidG
- 24Terry DevlinD
- 2Benjamin ArthurD
- 6Conor ShaughnessyD
- 22Zak SwansonD
- 7Marlon PackM
- 19Rocco Robert SheinM
- 11Abu KamaraM
- 10Adrian SegečićM
- 25Ryan Kavuma-McQueenM
- 9Colby BishopF
- 38Ebou AdamsM
- 23Josh MurphyM
- 29Marko MilovanovićF
- 4Josh KnightD
- 28Luke Brooke-SmithF
- 31Daniel BielicaG
- 55Madiodio DiaD
- 27Odin BaileyM
- 8John SwiftM
Form going into Lincoln vs Portsmouth
Lincoln
- L1-2away to Middlesbrough15 August 2026
Portsmouth
- L1-3QPR15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lincoln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Portsmouth
- 22 August 2026Lincoln 1–3 PortsmouthChampionship
- 27 April 2024Lincoln 0–2 PortsmouthLeague One
- 23 September 2023Portsmouth 2–1 LincolnLeague One
- 18 February 2023Lincoln 0–0 PortsmouthLeague One
- 6 August 2022Portsmouth 0–0 LincolnLeague One
- 15 April 2022Portsmouth 3–2 LincolnLeague One