Millwall vs Norwich Championship prediction & result
Final score: Millwall 3-0 Norwich.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Millwall, 21% draw, 22% Norwich — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millwall at 57% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Millwall vs Norwich
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lukas JensenG
- 17Mark SykesD
- 6Caleb TaylorD
- 5Jake CooperD
- 3Zak SturgeD
- 10Camiel NeghliM
- 24Casper De NorreM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 7Tairyk ArconteF
- 19Josh CoburnF
- 22Kyrell LisbieF
- 29Zak LovelaceF
- 16Daniel KellyM
- 25Luke CundleM
- 13Lyndon DykesF
- 2Jordi Osei-TutuD
- 15Max CrocombeG
- 23Danny BatthD
- 12Elkan BaggottD
- 31Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
- 1Vladan KovačevićG
- 35Kellen FisherD
- 6Harry DarlingD
- 33José CórdobaD
- 14Ben ChriseneD
- 23Kenny McLeanM
- 26Sam FieldM
- 11Andre BrooksM
- 20Anis Ben SlimaneM
- 29Oscar SchwartauM
- 21Mohamed TouréF
- 3Jack StaceyD
- 19Papa Amadou DialloF
- 7Pelle MattssonM
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 49Anthony MusabaF
- 32Daniel GrimshawG
- 13Darlin YongwaD
- 16Jacob WrightM
- 30Mathias KvistgaardenF
Form going into Millwall vs Norwich
Millwall
- W2-0away to Bristol City15 August 2026
Norwich
- L1-2West Brom15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs Norwich
- 22 August 2026Millwall 3–0 NorwichChampionship
- 6 April 2026Millwall 1–2 NorwichChampionship
- 9 August 2025Norwich 1–2 MillwallChampionship
- 21 April 2025Millwall 3–1 NorwichChampionship
- 26 December 2024Norwich 2–1 MillwallChampionship
- 29 December 2023Millwall 1–0 NorwichChampionship
Leading scorers: Millwall and Norwich
Millwall
- L. Dykes4 goals
- T. Arconte3 goals
Norwich
- M. Touré4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.