Metz vs Laval Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Metz 1-1 Laval.
Before kick-off the model made it 85% Metz, 9% draw, 6% Laval — fair odds of 1.18, 11.11 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 85% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Metz vs Laval
Line-ups
- 1Jonathan FischerG
- 70Bouna SarrD
- 42Cristian CastroD
- 98Idris MohamedD
- 3Florian MiguelD
- 8Jessy DeminguetM
- 18Believe MunongoM
- 21Jahyann PandoreM
- 9Giorgi AbuashviliF
- 11Pape Moussa FallF
- 22Nathan MbalaF
- 6Nampalys MendyM
- 10Teji SavanierM
- 4Urie-Michel MboulaD
- 38Hamza KadamaniM
- 7Ibou SaneF
- 61Pape SyG
- 39Bryan SongD
- 19Morgan Bokele MputuF
- 20Habibou DialloF
- 30Mamadou SamassaG
- 23Esteban MoutonD
- 18Aboubacar LôD
- 3William BiandaD
- 22Jules GaudinD
- 6Sam SannaM
- 33Sacha MellierM
- 14Cyril MandoukiM
- 5Julien MaggiottiM
- 11Trévis DagoF
- 31Mathis HoudayerF
- 21Alessio BeaudouinD
- 7Chafik GourichyM
- 19Noa MupembaF
- 28Aboubakary KantéF
- 32Yanis CourtM
- 1Maxime HautboisG
- 35Joseph Layousse SambD
- 29Mamadou SidibéM
Form going into Metz vs Laval
Metz
- D0-0away to Grenoble14 August 2026
Laval
- W2-1Nantes14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Metz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 18 | Laval | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Metz vs Laval
- 10 May 2025Laval 2–3 MetzLigue 2
- 31 August 2024Metz 1–1 LavalLigue 2
- 1 April 2023Metz 1–0 LavalLigue 2
- 20 August 2022Laval 3–3 MetzLigue 2
- 2 February 2016Metz 1–0 LavalLigue 2
- 11 September 2015Laval 0–1 MetzLigue 2
Leading scorers: Metz and Laval
Metz
- P. Fall5 goals
Laval
- E. Clavreul2 goals3 assists
- M. Houdayer2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.