7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Blackburn vs West Ham Championship prediction & result

Ewood Park, Blackburn
Referee: Thomas Kirk
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Blackburn 2-1 West Ham.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Blackburn, 25% draw, 45% West Ham — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

West Ham at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Blackburn94%Draw6%West Ham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gady Beyuku
34'
⚽Andri Guðjohnsenassist: J. Fevrier
54'
59'
🔁Edvin Austböout: Manor Solomon
65'
🔁Mohamadou Kanteout: Taty Castellanos
Kristi Montgomery
67'
🔁J. Fevrierout: Augustus Kargbo
70'
🔁Andri Guðjohnsenout: Yuki Ohashi
71'
⚽Oladapo Afolayanassist: Yuki Ohashi
71'
72'
Maximilian Kilman
78'
🔁Joël Veltmanout: Tomáš Souček
78'
🔁Divine Mukasaout: Lewis Orford
82'
⚽Joel Piroeassist: Taty Castellanos
🔁Kristi Montgomeryout: Moussa·Baradji
82'
86'
Arne Engels
Augustus Kargbo
87'

Match stats — Blackburn vs West Ham

36%Possession64%
5Shots20
3On target5
4Corners9
1.01xG1.35

Goals against chances

Blackburn2 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth
West Ham1 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Blackburn 4-2-3-1
  • 22B. TóthG
  • 27Gady BeyukuD
  • 17H. CarterD
  • 15S. McLoughlinD
  • 3H. PickeringD
  • 8Sam MorsyM
  • 31Kristi MontgomeryM
  • 11J. FevrierM
  • 10T. CantwellM
  • 21O. AfolayanM
  • 9A. GuðjohnsenF
Substitutes
  • 1A. PearsG
  • 4Yuri RibeiroD
  • 23Y. OhashiF
  • 7A. KargboF
  • 30J. GarrettM
  • 14D. De NeveM
  • 24M. BaradjiM
  • 6Tom AtchesonD
  • 16S. WhartonD
Coach: Tony Mowbray
West Ham 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. HermansenG
  • 34J. VeltmanD
  • 15K. MavropanosD
  • 3M. KilmanD
  • 63Ezra MayersD
  • 20J. BowenM
  • 14D. MukasaM
  • 7A. EngelsM
  • 35E. AustböM
  • 17M. KantéM
  • 9J. PiroeF
Substitutes
  • 23A. AreolaG
  • 11V. CastellanosF
  • 58A. GolambeckisD
  • 27S. MagassaM
  • 61L. OrfordM
  • 5MoratoD
  • 30O. ScarlesD
  • 10M. SolomonF
  • 28T. SoučekM
Coach: S. Parker

Form going into Blackburn vs West Ham

Blackburn

Championship

  • L1-2Stoke City3 November 2026
  • L0-4away to Swansea31 October 2026
  • W2-0Wrexham24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026

West Ham

Championship

  • D3-3away to Cardiff4 November 2026
  • L1-3West Brom31 October 2026
  • L2-3Southampton24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Blackburn failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Blackburn scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Blackburn conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • West Ham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • West Ham failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • West Ham conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Blackburn156362223-121
9West Ham156543723+1423

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Blackburn vs West Ham

  • 9 November 2022West Ham 2–2 BlackburnLeague Cup
  • 21 February 2016Blackburn 1–5 West HamFA Cup
  • 7 May 2011West Ham 1–1 BlackburnPremier League
  • 18 December 2010Blackburn 1–1 West HamPremier League

The full Blackburn vs West Ham record →

Leading scorers: Blackburn and West Ham

Blackburn

GoalsAssists

  • A. Guðjohnsen101
  • O. Afolayan52

West Ham

GoalsAssists

  • J. Bowen77
  • K. Mavropanos50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Blackburn beat West Ham 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for West Ham at 45% and given a win for Blackburn 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Andri Guðjohnsen 54' for Blackburn, Oladapo Afolayan 71' for Blackburn, Joel Piroe 82' for West Ham. On expected goals it finished 1.01–1.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave West Ham a 28.0% chance to finish in the top two: 31.7% after a win, 25.6% after a draw, 22.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.8%, 5.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Blackburn v West Ham has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 25% / 25% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 25% / 45%: the biggest move is Blackburn's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Blackburn win30%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%=
  3. West Ham win45%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.