7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Charlton vs Sheffield Utd Championship prediction & result

The Valley, London
Referee: Matthew Corlett
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Charlton 2-1 Sheffield Utd.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Charlton, 30% draw, 42% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sheffield Utd at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Charlton96%Draw4%Sheffield Utd0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Millenic Alliassist: Dan McNamara
12'
25'
⚽Jordan Ayew
Dan McNamara
32'
35'
Hamza Choudhury
Tyler Bindon
36'
Alan Mwamba
38'
45'
🔁Hamza Choudhuryout: Femi Seriki
51'
🔁Femi Serikiout: Mark McGuinness
Joe Rankin-Costello
60'
🔁Joe Rankin-Costelloout: sonny carey
64'
🔁Alan Mwambaout: Harvey Knibbs
64'
71'
🔁Jordan Ayewout: Thomas Cannon
🔁Charlie Kelmanout: Matt Godden
75'
⚽Matt Goddenassist: Millenic Alli
79'
87'
🔁Ben Breretonout: Oliver Arblaster
87'
🔁Kalvin Phillipsout: Tyrese Campbell
🔁Tyreece Campbellout: Oliver Skipp
87'

Match stats — Charlton vs Sheffield Utd

51%Possession49%
9Shots13
2On target7
1Corners6
1.18xG0.89

Goals against chances

Charlton2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sheffield Utd1 from 0.89 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Charlton 4-1-4-1
  • 25W. MannionG
  • 20D. McNamaraD
  • 44Tyler BindonD
  • 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
  • 17A. BellD
  • 6C. CoventryM
  • 19M. AlliM
  • 32A. MwambaM
  • 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
  • 7T. CampbellM
  • 23C. KelmanF
Substitutes
  • 14S. CareyM
  • 3J. EdwardsD
  • 8H. KnibbsM
  • 18I. MesíkD
  • 13A. OkonkwoG
  • 34O. SkippM
  • 35R. NkengF
  • 24M. GoddenF
  • 62Joshua Michael HebertF
Coach: N. Jones
Sheffield Utd 4-4-2
  • 1M. CooperG
  • 8H. ChoudhuryD
  • 5J. TangangaD
  • 15L. KitchingD
  • 14H. BurrowsD
  • 19T. ChongM
  • 42Sydie PeckM
  • 27K. PhillipsM
  • 11R. DonovanM
  • 10J. AyewF
  • 22B. BreretonF
Substitutes
  • 25M. McGuinnessD
  • 44J. RiedewaldM
  • 38F. SerikiD
  • 3S. McCallumD
  • 17A. DaviesG
  • 9T. CannonF
  • 23T. CampbellF
  • 33J. BaptisteM
  • 4O. ArblasterM
Coach: Chris Wilder

Form going into Charlton vs Sheffield Utd

Charlton

Championship

  • L0-1Bolton3 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Middlesbrough31 October 2026
  • L1-3Norwich24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026

Sheffield Utd

Championship

  • W3-2away to Preston3 November 2026
  • W1-0Wrexham30 October 2026
  • D1-1Derby24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Charlton did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Charlton conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Charlton failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sheffield Utd went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Sheffield Utd scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sheffield Utd won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Charlton154561323-1017
10Sheffield Utd156452119+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charlton vs Sheffield Utd

  • 17 January 2026Charlton 1–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
  • 20 September 2025Sheffield Utd 0–1 CharltonChampionship
  • 18 March 2017Sheffield Utd 2–1 CharltonLeague One
  • 26 November 2016Charlton 1–1 Sheffield UtdLeague One
  • 9 March 2014Sheffield Utd 2–0 CharltonFA Cup
  • 21 January 2012Charlton 1–0 Sheffield UtdLeague One

The full Charlton vs Sheffield Utd record →

Leading scorers: Charlton and Sheffield Utd

Charlton

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Sheffield Utd

GoalsAssists

  • P. Bamford51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Charlton beat Sheffield Utd 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sheffield Utd at 42% and given a win for Charlton 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Millenic Alli 12' for Charlton, Jordan Ayew 25' for Sheffield Utd, Matt Godden 79' for Charlton. On expected goals it finished 1.18–0.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Charlton a 52.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 44.1% after a win, 52.9% after a draw, 56.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.1%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Charlton v Sheffield Utd has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 28% / 30% / 42%: the biggest move is Charlton's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Charlton win28%▼ −4
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Sheffield Utd win42%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.