7 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Bristol City vs Norwich Championship prediction & result

Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
Referee: Lewis Smith
Full time0 – 5

Final score: Bristol City 0-5 Norwich.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Bristol City, 28% draw, 37% Norwich — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Norwich at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bristol City0%Draw1%Norwich99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Paris Maghomaassist: Samuel Field
🔁Cameron Pringout: Jed Wallace
45'
53'
⚽Harry Darling
56'
⚽Andre Brooks
60'
🔁Benjamin Chriseneout: Darlin Yongwa
🔁Jason Knightout: Tomi Horvat
60'
🔁lorent tolajout: Dominic Ballard
60'
66'
🔁Andre Brooksout: Lucien Mahovo
66'
🔁Paris Maghomaout: J. Makama
🔁Joe Williamsout: Brian de Keersmaecker
66'
70'
⚽J. Makamaassist: Anthony Musaba
🔁Scott Twineout: Elijah Adebayo
74'
75'
🔁Anthony Musabaout: Oscar Schwartau
76'
🔁Samuel Fieldout: Kenny McLean
80'
⚽Mathias Kvistgaarden (pen)

Match stats — Bristol City vs Norwich

53%Possession47%
15Shots17
4On target7
8Corners3
1.75xG3.04

Goals against chances

Bristol City0 from 1.75 xGless than the chances were worth
Norwich5 from 3.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bristol City 4-2-3-1
  • 40B. CollinsG
  • 19G. TannerD
  • 16R. DickieD
  • 2L. EissatD
  • 3C. PringD
  • 8J. WilliamsM
  • 4A. RandellM
  • 21Rio CardinesM
  • 12J. KnightM
  • 10S. TwineM
  • 9L. TolajF
Substitutes
  • 23D. BallardF
  • 45E. AdebayoF
  • 5R. AtkinsonD
  • 11S. BellF
  • 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
  • 7Y. HirakawaM
  • 14T. HorvatM
  • 1S. TickleG
  • 17J. WallaceM
Coach: M. Skubala
Norwich 4-2-3-1
  • 32D. GrimshawG
  • 3J. StaceyD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 6H. DarlingD
  • 14B. ChriseneD
  • 26S. FieldM
  • 16Jacob WrightM
  • 11A. BrooksM
  • 25P. MaghomaM
  • 49A. MusabaM
  • 30M. KvistgaardenF
Substitutes
  • 33J. CórdobaD
  • 35K. FisherD
  • 12L. MahovoD
  • 13D. YongwaD
  • 7P. MattssonM
  • 23K. McLeanM
  • 29O. SchwartauF
  • 24J. MakamaF
  • 1V. KovačevićG
Coach: P. Clement

Form going into Bristol City vs Norwich

Bristol City

Championship

  • L1-2Wolves4 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Bolton31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Stoke City24 October 2026
  • L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026

Norwich

Championship

  • W4-0away to Derby3 November 2026
  • W3-2Watford31 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Charlton24 October 2026
  • L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Bristol City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bristol City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Norwich won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Norwich scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Norwich conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Bristol City155371624-818
12Norwich157083224+821

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Norwich

  • 18 April 2026Bristol City 2–4 NorwichChampionship
  • 18 October 2025Norwich 0–1 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 14 March 2025Bristol City 2–1 NorwichChampionship
  • 9 November 2024Norwich 0–2 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 20 April 2024Norwich 1–1 Bristol CityChampionship
  • 3 December 2023Bristol City 1–2 NorwichChampionship

The full Bristol City vs Norwich record →

Leading scorers: Bristol City and Norwich

Bristol City

GoalsAssists

  • S. Twine50

Norwich

GoalsAssists

  • M. Touré50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Norwich won 5–0 at Bristol City. The model had made a win for Norwich its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Paris Maghoma 22' for Norwich, Harry Darling 53' for Norwich, Andre Brooks 56' for Norwich, J. Makama 70' for Norwich, Mathias Kvistgaarden (penalty) 80' for Norwich. On expected goals it finished 1.75–3.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bristol City a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.7% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.2%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bristol City v Norwich has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Norwich's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Bristol City win35%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Norwich win37%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.