7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Cardiff vs Burnley Championship prediction & result

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Oliver Langford
Full time5 – 4

Final score: Cardiff 5-4 Burnley.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Cardiff, 24% draw, 24% Burnley — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cardiff at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Andréas Hountondjiassist: Lucas Pires Silva
25'
⚽Marcus Edwardsassist: Jaydon Banel
⚽Ollie·Tannerassist: Rubin Colwill
40'
Krystian Bielik
50'
55'
⚽Largie Ramazani
58'
🔁Marcus Edwardsout: Aaron Ramsey
58'
🔁Reo Hatateout: Josh Cullen
62'
⚽Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson (OG)
🔁Ollie·Tannerout: Yousef Salech
63'
64'
🔁Lucas Pires Silvaout: Connor Roberts
64'
🔁Jaydon Banelout: Oliver Sonne
⚽Yousef Salechassist: C. Ashford
65'
🔁Krystian Bielikout: Calum Scanlon
71'
⚽Jack Moylan (pen)
75'
Joel Bagan
79'
79'
Largie Ramazani
80'
🔁Andréas Hountondjiout: Zeki Amdouni
⚽Yousef Salechassist: Rubin Colwill
82'
⚽Alexander Sean Pablo Robertsonassist: Christopher Willock
90+4'
🔁Jack Moylanout: Joel Colwill
90+6'
🔁Christopher Willockout: Ronan Kpakio
90+6'
90+9'
Kyle Walker
90+11'
Josh Laurent
Rubin Colwill
90+11'
Yousef Salech
90+13'

Match stats — Cardiff vs Burnley

66%Possession34%
25Shots15
11On target8
5Corners6
4.69xG2.31

Goals against chances

Cardiff5 from 4.69 xGabout what the chances were worth
Burnley4 from 2.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cardiff 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 2W. FishD
  • 5K. BielikD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 45Cian AshfordM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 10R. ColwillM
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 8J. MoylanF
Substitutes
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 52T. PerrettM
  • 9Y. SalechF
  • 23C. ScanlonD
  • 33R. TankiewiczM
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 30H. TyrerG
  • 50Charlie HoltM
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
Burnley 4-2-3-1
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 44IgorD
  • 23Lucas PiresD
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 19L. RamazaniM
  • 10M. EdwardsM
  • 34J. BanelM
  • 17A. HountondjiF
Substitutes
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 21A. RamseyM
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 9J. VardyF
  • 1M. WeißG
  • 24J. CullenM
  • 11Z. AmdouniF
  • 3Max AlleyneD
Coach: F. Celestini

Form going into Cardiff vs Burnley

Cardiff

Championship

  • D3-3West Ham4 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Wolves31 October 2026
  • W1-0Birmingham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026

Burnley

Championship

  • D1-1away to QPR3 November 2026
  • D0-0Portsmouth31 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Lincoln24 October 2026
  • L1-2Wolves16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cardiff failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cardiff scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cardiff conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Burnley did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Burnley scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Burnley conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Cardiff154652727018
22Burnley151772231-910

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Burnley

  • 23 September 2025Burnley 1–2 CardiffLeague Cup
  • 4 March 2025Cardiff 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
  • 17 August 2024Burnley 5–0 CardiffChampionship
  • 8 May 2023Burnley 3–0 CardiffChampionship
  • 1 October 2022Cardiff 1–1 BurnleyChampionship
  • 13 April 2019Burnley 2–0 CardiffPremier League

The full Cardiff vs Burnley record →

Leading scorers: Cardiff and Burnley

Cardiff

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moylan103
  • Y. Salech51

Burnley

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cardiff beat Burnley 5–4. The model had made a win for Cardiff its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Andréas Hountondji 15' for Burnley, Marcus Edwards 25' for Burnley, Ollie·Tanner 40' for Cardiff, Largie Ramazani 55' for Burnley, Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson (own goal) 62' for Burnley, Yousef Salech 65' for Cardiff, Jack Moylan (penalty) 75' for Cardiff, Yousef Salech 82' for Cardiff, Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson 90+4' for Cardiff. On expected goals it finished 4.69–2.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burnley a 32.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.8% after a win, 31.7% after a draw, 36.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.1%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cardiff v Burnley has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 50% / 24% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 24% / 24%: the biggest move is Cardiff's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Cardiff win52%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%=
  3. Burnley win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.