24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Blackburn vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result

Ewood Park, Blackburn
Referee: Matthew Corlett, England
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Blackburn 2-0 Wrexham.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Blackburn, 28% draw, 32% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Blackburn at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Blackburn99%Draw1%Wrexham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Harry Pickering
16'
27'
Dominic Hyam
⚽Andri Guðjohnsen
44'
45'
Matty James
64'
🔁Matty Jamesout: George Dobson
64'
🔁Benjamin Whitemanout: Ben Sheaf
Sam Morsy
65'
🔁J. Fevrierout: Augustus Kargbo
72'
78'
🔁Dominic Hyamout: Oliver Rathbone
78'
🔁Issa Kaboreout: Danny Imray
78'
🔁Jacques Ekomiéout: Ryan·Longman
⚽Andri Guðjohnsenassist: Todd Cantwell
79'
Todd Cantwell
80'
🔁Andri Guðjohnsenout: Dion De Neve
89'
🔁Moussa·Baradjiout: Jake Garrett
89'

Match stats — Blackburn vs Wrexham

44%Possession56%
16Shots23
5On target1
7Corners9
1.61xG1.74

Goals against chances

Blackburn2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth
Wrexham0 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Blackburn 4-2-3-1
  • 22B. TóthG
  • 2R. AlebiosuD
  • 17H. CarterD
  • 15S. McLoughlinD
  • 3H. PickeringD
  • 8Sam MorsyM
  • 24M. BaradjiM
  • 11J. FevrierM
  • 10T. CantwellM
  • 21O. AfolayanM
  • 9A. GuðjohnsenF
Substitutes
  • 6Tom AtchesonD
  • 27Gady BeyukuD
  • 14D. De NeveM
  • 30J. GarrettM
  • 7A. KargboF
  • 1A. PearsG
  • 16S. WhartonD
  • 39H. PatesD
  • 48I. DunnM
Coach: Tony Mowbray
Wrexham 3-4-2-1
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 12I. KaboréM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 3J. EkomiéM
  • 28S. SmithM
  • 17C. O'HareM
  • 19K. MooreF
Substitutes
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 18B. SheafM
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 21D. WardG
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
  • 15G. DobsonM
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
Coach: P. Parkinson

Form going into Blackburn vs Wrexham

Blackburn

Championship

  • L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026

Wrexham

Championship

  • W4-1Preston17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Blackburn156362223-121
15Wrexham154651820-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Wrexham

  • 1 January 2026Blackburn 0–2 WrexhamChampionship
  • 29 November 2025Wrexham 1–1 BlackburnChampionship
  • 29 January 2024Blackburn 4–1 WrexhamFA Cup

Leading scorers: Blackburn and Wrexham

Blackburn

GoalsAssists

  • A. Guðjohnsen101
  • O. Afolayan52

Wrexham

GoalsAssists

  • K. Moore52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Blackburn beat Wrexham 2–0. The model had made a win for Blackburn its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Andri Guðjohnsen 44' for Blackburn, Andri Guðjohnsen 79' for Blackburn. On expected goals it finished 1.61–1.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wrexham a 5.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.1% after a win, 5.0% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.1%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.