24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Portsmouth vs Millwall Championship prediction & result

Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Referee: Tom Reeves, England
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Portsmouth 2-1 Millwall.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Portsmouth, 29% draw, 34% Millwall — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Portsmouth at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Jenson Metcalfe
⚽Lyndon Dykes (OG)
16'
24'
Tristan Crama
45'
Jake Cooper
🔁Adrian Segecicout: Ebou Adams
61'
🔁Ryan Kavuma-McQueenout: Tyrese Shade
62'
68'
🔁Lyndon Dykesout: Mihailo·Ivanovic
68'
🔁Kyrell Lisbieout: Romain Esse
Marko Milovanović
71'
🔁Marko Milovanovićout: Thomas Waddingham
71'
75'
🔁Tristan Cramaout: Ryan Leonard
76'
🔁Luke Cundleout: Alfie Doughty
⚽Thomas Waddingham
82'
87'
🔁Jenson Metcalfeout: D. Kelly
Zak Swanson
90+4'

Match stats — Portsmouth vs Millwall

48%Possession52%
7Shots10
2On target1
5Corners5
0.91xG0.73

Goals against chances

Portsmouth2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
Millwall1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. SchmidG
  • 24T. DevlinD
  • 5R. PooleD
  • 55M. DiaD
  • 22Z. SwansonD
  • 7M. PackM
  • 37I. MohamedM
  • 11A. KamaraM
  • 10A. SegecicM
  • 25R. Kavuma McQueenM
  • 29M. MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 19R. SheinM
  • 38E. AdamsM
  • 27O. BaileyM
  • 31D. BielicaG
  • 32E. KennyM
  • 16J. MeghomaD
  • 15F. UmehF
  • 17T. ShadeF
  • 20T. WaddinghamF
Coach: John Mousinho
Millwall 4-2-3-1
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 4T. CramaD
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 3Zak Norton SturgeD
  • 14Jenson MetcalfeM
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 25L. CundleM
  • 22K. LisbieM
  • 13L. DykesF
Substitutes
  • 45A. DoughtyM
  • 11R. EsseM
  • 9M. IvanovićF
  • 16D. KellyM
  • 18R. LeonardD
  • 2J. Osei-TutuD
  • 17M. SykesM
  • 12E. BaggottD
  • 41G. EvansG
Coach: A. Neil

Form going into Portsmouth vs Millwall

Portsmouth

Championship

  • D1-1away to Wolves20 October 2026

Millwall

Championship

  • D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Portsmouth156452018+222
16Millwall155372327-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Millwall vs Portsmouth

Millwall and Portsmouth have met 7 times in the records we hold, Millwall has won 4 of them to Portsmouth's 3.

The record

Portsmouth won the last one 2–1 on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Millwall403910
Portsmouth304109

Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Championship    Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall
  • 21 Feb 2026
    Championship    Millwall 1–3 Portsmouth
  • 22 Nov 2025
    Championship    Portsmouth 3–1 Millwall
  • 5 Apr 2025
    Championship    Millwall 2–1 Portsmouth
  • 28 Jan 2025
    Championship    Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall
  • 13 Aug 2024
    League Cup    Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall
  • 10 Aug 2021
    League Cup    Millwall 2–1 Portsmouth

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Millwall's attack rates 13% above Portsmouth's, and Portsmouth concede 10% fewer than Millwall. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Millwall0.761.37
Portsmouth0.671.23

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

Portsmouth beat Millwall 2–1. The model had made a win for Portsmouth its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jenson Metcalfe 6' for Millwall, Lyndon Dykes (own goal) 16' for Portsmouth, Thomas Waddingham 82' for Portsmouth. On expected goals it finished 0.91–0.73.

How the call on Portsmouth v Millwall has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Millwall's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Portsmouth win37%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Millwall win34%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.