Cardiff vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Cardiff 1-0 Birmingham.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Cardiff, 27% draw, 37% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Birmingham at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cardiff vs Birmingham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 2W. FishD
- 3J. BaganD
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 11O. TannerM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 39I. DaviesF
- 44R. KpakioD
- 52T. PerrettM
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 30H. TyrerG
- 16C. WillockM
- 50Charlie HoltM
- 40N. AnyadikeD
- 1J. BeadleG
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 14J. SolisM
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 32L. VázquezF
- 23D. FryD
- 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
- 10D. GrayF
- 2E. LairdD
- 16P. RobertsM
- 33M. DuckschF
- 3L. BuchananD
- 18M. BirdM
- 21R. AllsopG
Form going into Cardiff vs Birmingham
Cardiff
Championship
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026
Birmingham
Championship
- W3-0QPR17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Cardiff
Birmingham and Cardiff have met 7 times in the records we hold, Cardiff has won 5 of them to Birmingham's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Cardiff won the last one 1–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Cardiff | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 1.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
ChampionshipCardiff 1–0 Birmingham - 10 Apr 2024
ChampionshipBirmingham 0–1 Cardiff - 13 Dec 2023
ChampionshipCardiff 0–1 Birmingham - 29 Aug 2023
League CupBirmingham 1–3 Cardiff - 14 Feb 2023
ChampionshipBirmingham 0–2 Cardiff - 13 Aug 2022
ChampionshipCardiff 1–0 Birmingham - 30 Apr 2022
ChampionshipCardiff 1–1 Birmingham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Cardiff's attack rates 10% above Birmingham's, and Birmingham concede 38% fewer than Cardiff. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Cardiff | 0.91 | 1.65 |
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Birmingham
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske61
- L. Millar43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cardiff beat Birmingham 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Birmingham at 37% and given a win for Cardiff 36%. The goal: Yousef Salech 31' for Cardiff. On expected goals it finished 2.40–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cardiff a 4.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.0% after a win, 5.1% after a draw, 6.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.0%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
For Birmingham the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 17.9% going in: 21.9% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 14.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.3%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Cardiff v Birmingham has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Birmingham's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Cardiff win36%=
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Birmingham win37%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.