24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Lincoln vs Burnley Championship prediction & result

LNER stadium, Lincoln
Referee: Thomas Parsons, England
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Lincoln 4-1 Burnley.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Lincoln, 27% draw, 34% Burnley — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lincoln at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lincoln99%Draw1%Burnley0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
🔁Armando Brojaout: Andréas Hountondji
39'
⚽Andréas Hountondjiassist: Lucas Pires Silva
⚽Ben Houseassist: Andrei Coubiș
45+3'
45'
🔁Kyle Walkerout: Connor Roberts
⚽Mikkel Ladefoged
49'
⚽Dom Jefferies
57'
59'
🔁Dastan Satpaevout: Oliver Sonne
⚽Mikkel Ladefogedassist: Ben House
67'
67'
Grégoire Coudert
Ben House
73'
74'
🔁Max Alleyneout: Marcus Edwards
74'
🔁Reo Hatateout: Ugo Raghouber
🔁Sonny Bradleyout: Ryley Towler
81'
🔁Mikkel Ladefogedout: Robert Nicholas Street
81'
🔁Reeco Hackett-Fairchildout: Chiedozie Ogbene
81'
84'
⚽Marcus Edwards (pen)
🔁Conor McGrandlesout: Ivan Varfolomeev
89'
🔁Dom Jefferiesout: Daniel Oyegoke
89'

Match stats — Lincoln vs Burnley

61%Possession39%
21Shots8
7On target4
2Corners5
1.94xG2.37

Goals against chances

Lincoln4 from 1.94 xGmore than the chances were worth
Burnley1 from 2.37 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lincoln 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. WickensG
  • 4A. CoubișD
  • 15S. BradleyD
  • 25D. ElereweD
  • 3A. ReachD
  • 14C. McGrandlesM
  • 26Y. KonakM
  • 7R. HackettM
  • 18B. HouseM
  • 16D. JefferiesM
  • 11M. LadefogedF
Substitutes
  • 8T. BaylissM
  • 20C. ElderD
  • 46J. GauciG
  • 27C. OgbeneF
  • 19I. OlaofeF
  • 33D. OyegokeD
  • 17R. StreetF
  • 6R. TowlerD
  • 24I. VarfolomeevM
Coach: Chris Cohen
Burnley 4-2-3-1
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 44IgorD
  • 23Lucas PiresD
  • 3Max AlleyneM
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 19L. RamazaniM
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 12D. SatpaevM
  • 27A. BrojaF
Substitutes
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 1M. WeißG
  • 10M. EdwardsF
  • 30L. CastellF
  • 17A. HountondjiF
  • 41G. BrierleyM
  • 48E. AgyeiF
Coach: N. Hayen

Form going into Lincoln vs Burnley

Lincoln

Championship

  • D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026

Burnley

Championship

  • L1-2Wolves16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Lincoln154381526-1115
22Burnley151772231-910

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Burnley

  • 18 February 2017Burnley 0–1 LincolnFA Cup

The result against the call

Lincoln beat Burnley 4–1. The model had made a win for Lincoln its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Andréas Hountondji 39' for Burnley, Ben House 45+3' for Lincoln, Mikkel Ladefoged 49' for Lincoln, Dom Jefferies 57' for Lincoln, Mikkel Ladefoged 67' for Lincoln. On expected goals it finished 1.94–2.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lincoln a 27.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.4% after a win, 26.9% after a draw, 32.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.4%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

For Burnley the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.4% going in: 19.4% after a win, 25.0% after a draw, 28.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.3%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lincoln v Burnley has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is the draw, down 4 points.

  1. Lincoln win39%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −4
  3. Burnley win34%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.