24 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Charlton vs Norwich Championship prediction & result

The Valley, London
Referee: John Busby, England
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Charlton 1-3 Norwich.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Charlton, 30% draw, 37% Norwich — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Norwich at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Charlie Kelmanassist: Joe Rankin-Costello
10'
Karlan Grant
27'
29'
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Josh Edwards
32'
35'
⚽Paris Maghomaassist: Mathias Kvistgaarden
45'
🔁Pelle Mattssonout: Kenny McLean
50'
⚽Mathias Kvistgaardenassist: Ruairi McConville
🔁Karlan Grantout: Miles Leaburn
55'
🔁sonny careyout: Harvey Knibbs
55'
🔁Josh Edwardsout: Ivan Mesik
55'
65'
🔁Paris Maghomaout: Samuel Field
Harvey Knibbs
69'
75'
🔁Mathias Kvistgaardenout: J. Makama
75'
🔁Andre Brooksout: Anthony Musaba
🔁Conor Coventryout: Alan Mwamba
75'
76'
⚽Ivan Mesik (OG)
78'
Ante Crnac
🔁Joe Rankin-Costelloout: Micah Mbick
83'
88'
🔁Oscar Schwartauout: Darlin Yongwa
Alan Mwamba
88'

Match stats — Charlton vs Norwich

38%Possession62%
8Shots16
3On target5
3Corners7
0.87xG1.75

Goals against chances

Charlton1 from 0.87 xGabout what the chances were worth
Norwich3 from 1.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Charlton 4-2-3-1
  • 13A. OkonkwoG
  • 2K. RamsayD
  • 5L. JonesD
  • 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
  • 3J. EdwardsD
  • 6C. CoventryM
  • 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
  • 7T. CampbellM
  • 14S. CareyM
  • 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
  • 23C. KelmanF
Substitutes
  • 19M. AlliF
  • 17A. BellD
  • 44Tyler BindonD
  • 8H. KnibbsM
  • 11M. LeaburnF
  • 25W. MannionG
  • 33Micah MbickF
  • 18I. MesíkD
  • 32A. MwambaD
Coach: N. Jones
Norwich 4-2-3-1
  • 32D. GrimshawG
  • 3J. StaceyD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 6H. DarlingD
  • 14B. ChriseneD
  • 16Jacob WrightM
  • 7P. MattssonM
  • 11A. BrooksM
  • 25P. MaghomaM
  • 29O. SchwartauM
  • 30M. KvistgaardenF
Substitutes
  • 26S. FieldM
  • 35K. FisherD
  • 1V. KovačevićG
  • 24J. MakamaF
  • 23K. McLeanM
  • 49A. MusabaF
  • 13D. YongwaD
  • 17A. CrnacF
  • 33J. CórdobaD
Coach: P. Clement

Form going into Charlton vs Norwich

Charlton

Championship

  • L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026

Norwich

Championship

  • L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Charlton154561323-1017
12Norwich157083224+821

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charlton vs Norwich

Charlton and Norwich have met 7 times in the records we hold, Norwich has won 6 of them to Charlton's 1.

The record

Norwich won the last one 3–1 on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Charlton106513
Norwich601135

Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Championship    Charlton 1–3 Norwich
  • 21 Mar 2026
    Championship    Charlton 0–1 Norwich
  • 26 Dec 2025
    Championship    Norwich 1–0 Charlton
  • 9 Jan 2022
    FA Cup    Charlton 0–1 Norwich
  • 22 Aug 2017
    League Cup    Norwich 4–1 Charlton
  • 10 Feb 2015
    Championship    Charlton 2–3 Norwich
  • 30 Sep 2014
    Championship    Norwich 0–1 Charlton

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Norwich's attack rates 94% above Charlton's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Charlton0.501.38
Norwich0.971.35

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Charlton and Norwich

Charlton

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Norwich

GoalsAssists

  • M. Touré50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Norwich won 3–1 at Charlton. The model had made a win for Norwich its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Charlie Kelman 10' for Charlton, Paris Maghoma 35' for Norwich, Mathias Kvistgaarden 50' for Norwich, Ivan Mesik (own goal) 76' for Norwich. On expected goals it finished 0.87–1.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Charlton a 23.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.0% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 27.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.0%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

For Norwich the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.6% going in: 5.7% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.7%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.